Determinants and consequences of rural‐to‐urban migration patterns in China: Evidence from sequence analysis

Abstract

This paper adopts a life course perspective that captures the migration trajectory for rural-to-urban migrants in China during the observation window. By taking this trajectory approach, we aim to advance the understanding of divergent ruralto-urban migration patterns in China and their determinants and consequences. We use data from the Survey of Internal Migration and Health in China (IMHC) and focus on individuals' migration experience between age 14 and 40. First, we apply sequence analysis to characterise the main rural-to-urban migration patterns by different timing, duration, frequency, and direction and identify seven common patterns. We next examine the determinants of these patterns. The results suggest that demographic characteristics, socio-economic background, and hometown characteristics shape migration trajectories in complex ways, highlighting that social origin can substantially determine migration patterns of rural Chinese. Furthermore, we examine via a counterfactual framework how the seven migration patterns shape migrants' occupational attainment while taking account of self-selection into different migration trajectories. The findings show that (i) there is self-selection into migration trajectories that has implications for occupational status and (ii) nontransient adult urban migration is associated with higher occupational attainment whereas other types of migration are not.

Migration up and down the urban hierarchy: The mediating effects of geographic mobility on migrants' homeownership

“…There are several limitations of this study. First, studies in the migration field pointed out that migration, as a sequential behavior, is a complex and dynamic process and should be analyzed as a serial succession of multiple migration states (Bernard & Kalemba, 2022;Z. Chen et al, 2022).…”

“…There are several limitations of this study. First, studies in the migration field pointed out that migration, as a sequential behavior, is a complex and dynamic process and should be analyzed as a serial succession of multiple migration states (Bernard & Kalemba, 2022; Z. Chen et al, 2022). Future research needs to explore data with more information about migration trajectory, and investigate how the dynamic migration process affects migrants' homeownership in the destination city.…”

How Parental Internal Migration within China Affects the Aspirations of Left-Behind and Migrant Children: From Comparative and Multidimensional Perspectives

“…The other is the selection of parents. Migration involves a selection process (Chen et al 2022; Zhou and Hui 2022). That is, migrants differ from nonmigrants, so it is likely that selective characteristics of migrant parents, such as educational and occupational status, can explain the difference in their children’s aspirations.…”

“…In addition, rural-to-urban migration, which accounts for the majority of internal migration within China, resembles international migration in many aspects (Chen, Lu, and Treiman 2022; Wang and Chen 2019). Rural-to-urban migrants face strong institutional, economic, cultural, and social barriers once they migrate to the host city, largely because of the household registration system, hukou (Wang and Fan 2012).…”

Family migration in China: A longitudinal analysis of couples' migration behaviour

“…All in all, a substantial gap in opportunities between rural and urban areaswhich also reflects lowered importance of agricultural production and a greater emphasis on nonagricultural market sectors (Qi, 2019)underlies the large-scale and sustained movement of the rural population into urban areas (Shen, 2012). In contrast, the opportunity differential across urban areas is narrower and, urban-to-urban movements are marginal when compared to rural-urban flows ZHU and VIDAL | 3 of 19 (Chen et al, 2021). Some interesting urban-rural migrations trends are also worth mentioning.…”