Determinants of belief in conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine among youth

Abstract

Conspiracy theories are particularly prevalent in times of crisis and pose a major threat to democracy. Young people are especially susceptible to conspiracy theories, as this period is characterized by high social vulnerability and constant reflection on one's position in society. However, to date little is known about the determinants of young people's belief in conspiracy theories in general and in times of crisis in particular. In this study, we address this research gap by investigating the belief of young people in Germany (N = 2437, aged 16 to 29) in conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine. Drawing on Douglas and colleagues’ (2017) taxonomy, we find that epistemic (e.g., political self‐efficacy), existential (e.g., political trust), and social (e.g., social exclusion) motives influence belief in conspiracies about the war among young people. However, while the taxonomy suggests equal influence of the three motives, the effects of feelings of social exclusion on war‐related conspiracy beliefs among youth are mainly mediated by a strong influence of political distrust. In this way, our findings contribute to a better understanding of conspiracy beliefs among young people and highlight the importance of increasing young people's political trust to prevent the spread of conspiracy theories.