Determinants of Change in the Distribution of Blacks across Suburbs

Abstract

An analysis of the determinants of change in suburban fringe black residential segregation between 1960 and 1970 is conducted for the 45 largest Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) using a lagged endogenous variable structural equation model. Levels of 1970 fringe black segregation are related to 1960 levels, as well as central city age, distance to the nearest other SMSA, region, central city job concentration, fringe percent black, fringe income, and job segregation. It was found that central city job concentration was the only significant determinant of change in segregation. A number of cross-sectional determinants of fringe segregation are also identified.

The Racial Structuring of the Housing Market and Segregation in Suburban Areas

“…5. As noted above, Stahura (1983) found that central city job concentration was a significant determinant of change in segregation at the SMSA level. Using ecological expansion theory, he argues that the increased differentiation resulting from the desire of population groups to segregate themselves leads to the concentration of integrative activities at a central point.…”

“…We present two lagged endogenous variable models in which proportion black and correlation ratio in 1980 are regressed on their values in 1970 and the other variables hypothesized to affect change in racial patterns (see Logan and Semyonov [1980] and Stahura [1983] for other applications of such models to suburban data). The regression results for black suburbanization for the 44 suburban regions are presented in Table 1.…”

“…But while some studies have reported segregation scores for suburban rings, only Stahura (1983) has systematically studied the determinants of change in suburban racial segregation. He found that only level of segregation and concentration of the metropolitan job base in the center city in 1960 were significant predictors of change for 1970.…”

Suburban Development, Black Suburbanization and the Civil Rights Movement since World War II

“…Previous studies have demonstrated the persistence of such characteristics (e.g. Guest, 1978;Stahura, 1978;, 1982Stahura and Marshall, 1982) and there is no reason to anticipate otherwise. More importantly, the character of suburbanization did not change during the decade so as to alter the ranking of suburbs with respect to size, area and job concentration; growing suburbs continued to grow rapidly while stagnant suburbs showed little growth.…”

“…Socioeconomic status is also hypothesized to be positively related to job and population increase (Stahura and Marshall, 1982). Regional differences in suburban population (Stahura and Marshall, 1982;Guest, 1979) and job growth (Stahura, 1982) are also anticipated based on previous research. Annexation is hypothesized to be related to region, status and distance from the central city.…”