Determinants of Intended Return Migration among Refugees: A Comparison of Syrian Refugees in Germany and Turkey

Abstract

Little is known about whether Syrian refugees intend to return to their origin-country and what affects their return migration intentions. We introduce a theoretical framework for voluntary return, identify the refugees’ decision-making context, and empirically assess the model with a sample of 577 Syrian refugees living in Germany and Turkey in 2018. Three return scenarios were presented in the survey: (i) returning to Syria within two years, (ii) returning when Syria is as safe as before the civil war, and (iii) ever returning. The three scenarios were conceived very differently by the refugees, highlighting the dynamic nature and context dependency of the concept of voluntary return. Syrian refugees in Turkey were more likely to regard their stay as temporary (76 percent), compared to those in Germany (55 percent, p-value of difference = .000). Similarly, structural factors of the origin- and host-countries, that is, the origin-governorate and the current location, were considerably influencing return intentions. Concerning individual factors, female and highly educated refugees had a lower willingness to return. Those who were married were less inclined to return in the short run, yet refugees who self-identified as poor indicated their desired return in the long run. We also analyzed whether random exposure to information regarding return impacted refugees’ intentions. We found a negative, albeit insignificant, impact of information, suggesting that host governments cannot expect (rapid) information dissemination to impact refugees’ decision-making about voluntary return. Our findings underscore that neither proximate nor distant host-countries should bank on the speedy return of the Syrian refugees.

An Analytic Hierarchy Process Contingency Analysis of Factors Affecting the Emigration Decision of Medical Doctors in Turkey

“…This also suggests that it is very reasonable to include all those who state that they plan to study abroad in the intention-to-emigrate group. Since the return intention has commonly been examined for the people who already emigrated [ 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 ], the return intention of those who are currently in Turkey was not investigated in this study.…”

The war, refugees, and the future of Ukraine's population

“…Refugees who are more educated have stronger return intentions, presumably due to their better prospects for successful reintegration. Those who fled to a nearby state are more likely to return than those who have migrated further (Al Husein & Wagner, 2023; Rendall & Ball, 2004). Similar to emigration, the presence of children in the household increases the costs and hence, decreases the probability of (return) migration (Klinthäll, 2007).…”

“…Refugees who are more educated have stronger return intentions, presumably due to their better prospects for successful reintegration. Those who fled to a nearby state are more likely to return than those who have migrated further (Al Husein & Wagner, 2023;Rendall & Ball, 2004).…”

“I Will Return Strong”: The Role of Life Aspirations in Refugees’ Return Aspirations

“…Rottmann and Kaya 2021). For example, research on Syrian refugees' return intentions has focused on safety considerations, livelihood opportunities, and access to shelter and basic services (UNHCR 2019), on asset ownership and access to education (Husein and Wagner 2020), and on living conditions and legal status (Valenta et al 2020). Some recent studies on refugee return have also focused on the more emotional or "affective" dimensions of return decisions.…”

“…A study conducted in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, for example, showed that 75 percent of Syrian refugees aspired to return “home” once the conflict is over and that the numbers of those aspiring to return were increasing (UNHCR 2019). Return aspirations of Syrian refugees residing in Europe are lower: A study reported that 55 percent of refugees interviewed in Germany desired to return to Syria one day (Husein and Wagner 2020), whereas only a fifth of Syrians with a temporary asylum permit in the Netherlands aspired to return, if possible (Dagevos et al 2018, 6). Over the past years, there has been a modest but substantial number of returns to Syria: 56,000 in 2018 (UNHCR 2019).…”