“…Finally, in Table 9, we control for past equity returns for each country in the sample. This is important because prior work documents that there is a negative relationship between CDS and equity market (see for example : Merton, 1974;Vassalou and Xing, 2004)), which could plausibly drive the predictive relationship between sovereign CDS and fund flow given that equity returns often lead fund flow (Shinozawa and Vivian, 2015). As shown in Table 9, we do find a positive relationship between lagged equity index return and fund flow which is statistically significant at the 10% level.…”