Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production and the Global Economy

“…Barros et al (2011) find that shocks affecting the structure of OPEC oil production are highly persistent. Kaufmann et al (2008) find that real prices generally have a positive effect on production by OPEC members.…”

Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices

“…However, our results show that non-OPEC countries do not strictly follow the OPEC strategies. The asymmetric adjustment provides evidence that the market participants sometimes misuse their market power in determining oil prices, in the sense that OPEC or to a lesser extent non-OPEC countries can influence oil prices by managing production quotas (Kaufmann et al 2008). …”

Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

“…Oil prices swing as a result of many factors. Growth in global economic activity can increase demand and drive prices higher, while increasing production rates can lead to decline in prices [7,8]. Though simple demand and supply theories are useful in describing oil price movements, the factors driving such changes are often difficult to identify.…”

“…Higher production levels in the United States due to new technologies were to some extent expected. But some developments on the supply side were unexpected, such as the comeback of Libyan production, the refusal of the OPEC to reduce supply, and the probable future return of Iran on the global oil market, which likely caused shifts in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand [7].…”

“…The objective of forecasting research has been largely beyond the capability of traditional AI research which has mainly focused on developing intelligent systems that are supposed to emulate human intelligence [7,8]. By its nature crude oil price is mostly complex, nonlinear and volatile [9].…”