Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections

Abstract

Electoral politics and regional variation in socio‐economic conditions of individuals receive huge interest in countries with sizable political tension. Even though Turkey has undergone a combination of periods of economic success and a period of economic and political turmoil, it has been governed by a single political party during the last two decades—Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP)— Justice and Development Party. This paper examines the determinants of the variation in regional vote shares of AKP between the 2002 and 2018 parliamentary elections using panel data estimation method—effects—which allows us to account for time invariant region‐specific unobserved fixed effects. Our findings demonstrate that inflation, unemployment, per capita GDP growth, provision of healthcare, industrial sector growth rates, change in the ageing of the population and rate of absenteeism (voter turnout) are essential factors in voters' decisions. Our additional results reveal that the effects of socio‐economic factors on the AKP vote shares were distinctly different for the AKP stronghold provinces and the eastern regions that are mostly populated with Kurdish, suggesting that ideological position of the voters also play an essential role in voters' response to the changes in socio‐economic conditions.

Social and economic determinants of electoral behavior in Turkey

“…An increase in female illiteracy rate, often interpreted as reflecting more conservative values, contributes to an increase in the voting share for the JDP in line with the Kayao glu's (2017) findings, with a coefficient second only to the compound growth rate of the region. The old population rate, as a reflective of a region's dependency ratio, increases the vote share of the ruling party, contrary to the findings of the survey-based study by Erdogan and Semerci (2017), and in line with the results from the study by Deniz et al (2021). This study presents a novel finding concerning the positive relationship between domestic migration and an increase in JDP's vote share.…”

“…Akarca's (2019) study covering 1950 to 2019 confirmed economic voting, highlighting weakened effects with more parties and ideological distance. Deniz et al. (2021) employed panel data analysis covering the period from 2002 to 2018 to explore the fluctuations in JDP's vote shares over time.…”

“…However, the primary influence remains local and routine decision-making among voters. Deniz et al (2021) concluded that socio-economic factors are influenced by ethnicity and ideology, particularly considering historically underdeveloped eastern regions, predominantly Kurdish-populated and JDP-stronghold areas. Most recently, Gundem (2022) uncovers a significant link between religious activities and nationwide support for the JDP/ AKP.…”