Determinants of Urban Growth during Demographic and Mobility Transitions: Evidence from India, Mexico, and the US

Jiang, Leiwen; O’Neill, Brian C.

doi:10.1111/padr.12150

Cited by 37 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(26 reference statements)

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“…That said, results on the national, census-regional, and census-divisional levels suggest that reclassification is a substantial factor in the measurement of the urbanization process (e.g., roughly 44% and 34% of total urban population growth over each period; see Table 1). Encouragingly, the latter estimate, 34% for the period between 2000-2010, corresponds closely to the estimate of Jiang and O'Neill [9], who found that 27.7% of urban growth could be attributed to reclassification when they decomposed the impact of migration and natural increase (both known during this time period). The magnitude of this effect is influenced significantly by assumptions regarding the timing of reclassification.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…For more than 50 years, demographers have recognized that reclassification may interfere with an understanding of the demographic processes contributing to urbanization [6,9], particularly on the contribution of migration to urban change. With the bulk of the future population growth to take place in the world's cities and towns (particularly in the global south), it is imperative that we find new methods, such as those pioneered here, to decompose the effect of reclassification from the components, timing, and location of urban and city-specific demographic change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies of trends in, and the determinants of, urbanization typically either ignore the issue of reclassification, or combine the effects of migration and reclassification into a single term [8][9][10]. This is often justified by considering reclassification a nuisance to the demographic processes contributing to urban growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification

2020

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In today’s increasingly urban world, understanding the components of urban population growth is essential. While the demographic components of natural increase and migration have received the overwhelming share of attention to date, this paper addresses the effects of administrative reclassification on urban population growth as derived from census data, which remain largely unstudied. We adopt a spatial approach, using the finest resolution US census data available for three decennial census periods, to estimate the magnitude of reclassification and examine the spatial-temporal variation in reclassification effects. We supplement the census data by using satellite-derived settlement data to further explain reclassification outcomes. We find that while 10% and 7% of the population live in areas that underwent urban/rural reclassification during the 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 time periods, respectively (with smaller fractions of corresponding land), reclassification has a substantial effect on metrics derived to characterize the urbanization process—comprising roughly 44% and 34% of total urban population growth over each period. The estimated magnitude of this effect is sensitive to assumptions regarding the timing of reclassification. The approach also reveals where, how, to what degree, and, in some part, why reclassification is affecting to the process of urbanization on the fine spatial scale, including the impact of underlying demographic processes. This research provides new directions to more effectively study coupled nature–human systems and their interactions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification

2020

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“…In particular, it elucidates the process of urbanization as an outcome of the demographic transition (Dyson 2011). As mortality has declined at a fast pace in developing countries since 1950, urban growth has been predominantly driven by the excess of the number of births over deaths (Preston 1979;Chen et al 1998;Jedwab et al 2017;Jiang and O'Neill 2018). The rate of this endogenous population increase depends on the pace of the urban fertility decline.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility Decline in Urban and Rural Areas of Developing Countries

Lerch¹

2018

Population & Development Rev

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“…The determinants of urban growth do not consider either the effects of divergent rural and urban age and sex compositions (Jiang and O'Neill, 2018), or the contribution of migration to this process. However, the recent dynamics of economic development in the CMA, mainly the last-year transition from an industrial area to an IT hub, have triggered additional pressure on the real-estate sector.…”

Section: Urbanization Patterns Through Demographic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

What Does Unsustainable Urban Sprawl Bring? Spatial Patterns Analysis of Built Environment in Cluj Metropolitan Area

Man¹,

Planning²,

Bîrsănuc³

et al. 2019

JSSP

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J o u r n a l h o m e p a g e: http://jssp.reviste.ubbcluj.ro Urban sprawl and population growth are the main triggers of land use reconversion around big cities. Due to the expansion of metropolitan areas, many land use categories (grasslands, arable lands, forests, pastures) have been transformed in living spaces. Determining the built-up area growth rate from satellite images, in correlation with demographics and dwellings data, leads to a better comprehension of sustainable urban development and the negative effects of chaotic urbanization. This study analyses the built-up area expansion growth rate in Cluj Metropolitan Area in 1991-2017 using the normalized difference built-up index and soil-adjusted vegetation index applied on Landsat imagery. Results highlight different spatial patterns within the studied area, based on the correlation between the growth rates of built-up area expansion and demographic data. The land use types most impacted by the urban sprawl are meadows and arable lands near the metropolitan centre and grassland in areas located at the periphery of the metropolitan area.

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Determinants of Urban Growth during Demographic and Mobility Transitions: Evidence from India, Mexico, and the US

Cited by 37 publications

References 16 publications

Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification

Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification

Fertility Decline in Urban and Rural Areas of Developing Countries

What Does Unsustainable Urban Sprawl Bring? Spatial Patterns Analysis of Built Environment in Cluj Metropolitan Area

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