Determinants of voting results in Poland in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Analysis of spatial differences

Abstract

This paper analyses spatial differences in the voting results in Poland in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Eleven clusters defining different support profiles are determined using the two most popular stopping rules. Parameters of the multinomial logit model are estimated and determinants of Polish communes' membership in specific clusters are identified. The results of the estimation indicate that economic, sociodemographic and location variables strongly determined the Poles' electoral preferences. However, historical and cultural factors turned out to be the most important determinants.

Economic Parameters vs Voting Behaviour in the Polish Presidential Election in 2020: Poviat level analysis

“…Urbanisation has been shown as a very strong predictor of voters' decisions in Poland, with rightist or conservative parties and groups gaining more supporters in rural areas and cities tending to side with the left or centre (Marcinkiewicz 2017: 711-712). Spatial determinants of voting behaviour were analysed in detail for the 2015 parliamentary elections (Grabowski 2019).…”

Rural-Urban Inequalities and Spatial Justice in Europe

“…It is sentiments such as these that make rural regions potential reservoirs of support for disruptive political movements that weaponize feelings of spatial injustice, from nationalist and separatist parties, to populist, Eurosceptic and far-right parties and movements. Analyses have identified disproportionate support from rural voters to be significant in electoral advances for the Rassemblement National in France, the Allianz für Deutschland in Germany, Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) in Austria, the Boer Burger Beweging (Farmer-Citizen Movement) (BBB) in the Netherlands, the Sweden Democrats, and others, as well as in Britain's vote to leave the EU (Ivaldi & Gombin, 2015;Gavenda & Umit, 2016;Essletzbichler et al, 2018;Aylott & Bolin, 2019;Grabowski, 2019;Fortner et al, 2021;Engelen, 2023;Mauger & Pelletier, 2023). Studies have put forward various explanations for rural support for disruptive political movements, including economic disadvantage, but also declining trust in mainstream politics, and perceptions that rural interests are not being accommodated in policies on the net zero transition, conservation, immigration or social issues (Essletzbichler et al, 2018;Mamonova & Franquesa, 2019;Brooks, 2020;Fortner et al, 2021;May et al, 2021;Mitsch et al, 2021;Rodriguez-Pose, 2018;Schraff, 2019;van der Ploeg, 2020).…”

A Primer on the Government and Politics of Poland

“…PO has suffered five successive election defeats since the start of 2015 (see Grabowski, 2019). There is a strong sense that PO has struggled to find a clear and consistent policy narrative since 2015 and is more widely known for the opposition to policies of PiS rather than for its own legislative proposals and agenda.…”