Determination of an optimal control strategy for vaccine administration in COVID-19 pandemic treatment

Libotte, Gustavo Barbosa; Lobato, Fran Sérgio; Platt, Gustavo Mendes; Neto, Antônio José da Silva

doi:10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105664

Cited by 139 publications

(120 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Similarly, Hogan et al [27] consider optimal age-targeted vaccination policies where the entire age group is assumed to be vaccinated at a constant rate over the course of one month. Early work on optimal vaccination involved age-uniform policies, and on-off poli-cies were found to be optimal [32]. Similarly, Acuna-Zegarra et al [2] use optimal control to compute time-varying vaccination policies and find intense vaccination for a limited time period to be optimal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to coordinate vaccination and social distancing to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Grundel

Heyder

Hotz

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The world is waiting for a vaccine to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, once it becomes available, there will not be enough to vaccinate everybody at once. Therefore, vaccination and social distancing has to be coordinated. In this paper, we provide some insight on this topic using optimization-based control on an age-differentiated compartmental model. For real-life decision making we investigate the impact of the planning horizon on the optimal vaccination/social distancing strategy. We find that in order to reduce social distancing in the long run without overburdening the intensive care units it is essential to vaccinate the people with the highest contact rates first. However, for short-term planning it is optimal to focus on the high-risk group. Furthermore, large amounts of a vaccine with a lower success rate allows for more reduction of the social distancing than smaller amounts of a vaccine with higher success rate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to coordinate vaccination and social distancing to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Grundel

Heyder

Hotz

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Concerning the actual stage of development of vaccines for COVID-19, there are already strategies for the future administration of such vaccines. As an extension of the present paper using our proposed model, one could employ the protocol developed in [36] for the search of the best strategies of vaccine administration. Another potential extension of the present paper is to consider the economic impact of the pandemic in terms of different social distancing strategies adopted by different countries.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil: Impacts and uncertainties in social distancing strategies

Volpatto

Resende

Anjos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Brazil's continental dimension poses a challenge to the control of the spread of COVID-19. Due to the country specific scenario of high social and demographic heterogeneity, combined with limited testing capacity, lack of reliable data, under-reporting of cases, and restricted testing policy, the focus of this study is twofold: (i) to develop a generalized SEIRD model that implicitly takes into account the quarantine measures, and (ii) to estimate the response of the COVID-19 spread dynamics to perturbations/uncertainties. By investigating the projections of cumulative numbers of confirmed and death cases, as well as the effective reproduction number, we show that the model parameter related to social distancing measures is one of the most influential along all stages of the disease spread and the most influential after the infection peak. Due to such importance in the outcomes, different relaxation strategies of social distancing measures are investigated in order to determine which strategies are viable and less hazardous to the population. The results highlight the need of keeping social distancing policies to control the disease spread. Specifically, the considered scenario of abrupt social distancing relaxation implemented after the occurrence of the peak of positively diagnosed cases can prolong the epidemic, with a significant increase of the projected numbers of confirmed and death cases. An even worse scenario could occur if the quarantine relaxation policy is implemented before evidence of the epidemiological control, indicating the importance of the proper choice of when to start relaxing social distancing measures.

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“…Other COVID-19 case studies include the use of optimal control in USA 14 . Optimal administration of an hypothetical vaccine for COVID-19 has been also investigated 15 ; and an expression for the basic reproduction number in terms of the control variables obtained 16 . According to the most recent pandemic spreading data, until a large immunization rate is achieved (ideally by a vaccine), the application of so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is the key to control the number of active infected individuals 17 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal

Silva

Cruz

Torres

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience hitherto lived has provided data on the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the population dynamics as a result of the public health measures enacted. This allows the formulation of forecasting mathematical models to anticipate the consequences of political decisions. Here we propose a model to do so and apply it to the case of Portugal. With a mathematical deterministic model, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we fit the real evolution of COVID-19 in this country. After identification of the population readiness to follow social restrictions, by analyzing the social media, we incorporate this effect in a version of the model that allow us to check different scenarios. This is realized by considering a Monte Carlo discrete version of the previous model coupled via a complex network. Then, we apply optimal control theory to maximize the number of people returning to “normal life” and minimizing the number of active infected individuals with minimal economical costs while warranting a low level of hospitalizations. This work allows testing various scenarios of pandemic management (closure of sectors of the economy, partial/total compliance with protection measures by citizens, number of beds in intensive care units, etc.), ensuring the responsiveness of the health system, thus being a public health decision support tool.

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Determination of an optimal control strategy for vaccine administration in COVID-19 pandemic treatment

Cited by 139 publications

References 42 publications

How to coordinate vaccination and social distancing to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

How to coordinate vaccination and social distancing to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil: Impacts and uncertainties in social distancing strategies

Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal

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