Determination of magnetic cloud parameters and prediction of magnetic storm intensity

Бархатов, Н. А.; Kalinina, E. A.

doi:10.1134/s0016793210040043

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…An alternative approach is to use specific model of solar wind disturbance, which might be (in some cases) a more accurate guess of incoming solar wind. Chen et al [2012] and Barkhatov and Kalinina [2010] suggested the model of magnetic cloud/magnetic rope, fitted to observed solar wind data and later used for an estimate of storm magnitude. However this variant is directly applicable only to a subset of solar wind structures, while many solar wind events have rather irregular form.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended geomagnetic storm forecast ahead of available solar wind measurements

Podladchikova¹,

Petrukovich²

2012

Space Weather

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We develop a technique to predict geomagnetic storm magnitudes (peak Dst values) several hours in advance using the first indications of extreme solar wind conditions, as well as an assumption of constant driving function V Bs. For larger storms with clear V Bs jump we predict lower and upper limits of expected peak Dst. For smaller storms and storms with gradually increasing V Bs we predict Dst several hours ahead. The data from 1995–2010 were used to design the technique. The actual advance time of reliable forecasts (before the peak value is reached) is on average 5–6 hours, illustrating the realistic horizon of such “constant input” assumption. Larger storms are developing faster and thus are better predicted. False warnings (predictions more than 25% larger than the actual peak) occur in about 10% of events. The algorithm is implemented in real‐time in Space Research Institute, Moscow (www.spaceweather.ru).

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended geomagnetic storm forecast ahead of available solar wind measurements

Podladchikova¹,

Petrukovich²

2012

Space Weather

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“…The above conditions in our work to establish the boundaries of shock and sheath magnetic clouds are used. Spacecraft (SC) registration time of exam ined magnetic cloud bodies according to catalogs and literature with hour resolution were established (Yer molaev et al, 2009;Barkhatov et al, 2010; http://lepmfi. gsfc.nasa.gov/mfi/mag_cloud_publ.html).…”

Section: Shock Waves and Sheaths Of Magnetic Clouds As Cause Of Stormmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using this data is due to the high velocity of substorm processes. This article examines 16 events of solar streams identified in the literature and catalogs as magnetic clouds (Yermolaev et al, 2009;Barkhatov et al, 2010). All events have sheathes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geomagnetic substorm activity associated with magnetic clouds

et al. 2015

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The work to establishment of features generation of magnetic substorms interplanetary magnetic clouds, with participation in this process its sheathes is devoted. Research based on comparison parameter dynamics of magnetic clouds fine structure and clouds sheath with dynamics of auroral AL index and Dst index of global geomagnetic activity. Clouds sheath is original source of high latitude activity and gives start to global magnetic storms. Storm development provided by body magnetic cloud parameters was found. However, separate sheath clouds rarely causes global geomagnetic activity, causing usually weak or moderate geomagnetic storms. The most often source of global disturbances becomes a combination of sheath and body, causing classical strong or multi step storm.

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“…The comparison between existing MC models [Barkhatov, Kalinina, 2010;Barkhatov et al, 2014a, b] has shown that they all agree with each other and their complexity does not give significant insight into the main cloud parameters (the magnitude of the magnetic field on the cloud axis, its radius, impact parameter with respect to Earth, axis orientation in interplanetary space). To estimate the MC orientation, we therefore use a simple force-free cylindrical model ( Figure 2).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Taking into account all these problems, the proposed study is aimed at establishing the relationship between coordinates of solar regions of localization of plasma stream sources and substorm geomagnetic activity level. The developed approach to the study of the MC-type plasma stream represents its magnetic part as force-free magnetic flux tube carried away from the Sun during eruption [Barkhatov, Kalinina, 2010].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Studying the relationship of localization parameters of solar sources of magnetic clouds with their characteristics and substorm activity

Бархатов¹,

Barhatov²,

Ревунова³

et al. 2019

Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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We propose a method for determining location and orientation of extended solar sources of magnetic clouds, using coronagraph data and SOHO EIT/MDI images of the photosphere. To estimate the probability of formation of magnetic clouds, we use a simple cylindrical force-free model. We have established that more extended sources and those having a slight inclination to the solar equator and located on the solar limb as compared to those that are nonextended and strongly inclined can generate expanding clouds, which with high probability can reach the magnetosphere like clouds from a source near the zero meridian and low latitudes. We determine the relationship between extreme values of substorm activity and parameters of solar sources under study during the impact of magnetic clouds on Earth’s magnetosphere from the AL index. We note that there are no substorms associated with extended sources outside the heliolatitude range ~5–20°. The established relationship between solar source coordinates and geomagnetic activity of the magnetic cloud sheath and body are consistent with the most probable distribution of magnetoactive regions over the solar disk.

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Determination of magnetic cloud parameters and prediction of magnetic storm intensity

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

Extended geomagnetic storm forecast ahead of available solar wind measurements

Extended geomagnetic storm forecast ahead of available solar wind measurements

Geomagnetic substorm activity associated with magnetic clouds

Studying the relationship of localization parameters of solar sources of magnetic clouds with their characteristics and substorm activity

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