Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a possible relationship between soil radon gas concentration and atmospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during earthquakes taking into account magnetic effects on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkiye. The ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are employed for determining radon gas concentrations by taking into account magnetic effects as an innovative approach. In the study area relatively small and medium-scale earthquakes have taken place during the observation period. As a result of the investigations, the relationships between each of the parameters and earthquakes are determined, and hence, a good relationship is obtained between Rn gas anomaly and micro-seismic activity. In the ionosphere, geomagnetic activity has a primary impact and long duration on TEC distribution, but due to microseismic events it has rather small in uence. The proposed ARIMA and MCS simulations to detect changes in soil Rn gas concentrations have signi cant results for detecting micro-seismic activity anomalies.

Evaluation of the Effects of Earthquakes on Radon and Total Electron Content Values and Meteorological Changes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye

“…This movement of radon gas is the main cause of the ionization of the air atmosphere as well as the increment in the total electron content. This relationship is confirmed in the study [12], [46]. In addition, the cross-correlation between radon gas and TEC did not record any anomaly.…”

Estimation of 238U and 232Th in soil and water of prominent fault region of Mizoram

“…The study affirmed the significance of monitoring sub-soil radon anomaly as premonitory gas to seismic activity within 1,000 km radius from the monitoring site. Correlations of air and soil radon data with other parameters like tidal loading, atmospheric electromagnetic radiation, meteorological etc for seismic precursor were recently proposed by some others [38,39,[47][48][49][50][51][52][53]59]. The study agrees well in observing radon anomaly especially to those authors [38,39,52,59] who also observed radon anomaly at 2σ above the mean concentrations.…”

“…This observation ignites opti-mism among researchers to predict earthquakes by monitoring radon anomaly and soon it becomes a global phenomenon that continues till dates [5-11, 37-39, 47-53]. Uncertainty and inaccuracy in prediction remained the main issue of present-day researchers, which is very well visible from some recent reports [37][38][39][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. Chowdhury et al [38] and Sahoo et al [39] from the east and north India, respectively observed unpredicted earthquakes and false radon anomaly peaks, though they observed a positive correlation between them.…”

“…Chowdhury et al [38] and Sahoo et al [39] from the east and north India, respectively observed unpredicted earthquakes and false radon anomaly peaks, though they observed a positive correlation between them. Authors like Omori et al [47], Schekotov et al [48] and Mohammad et al [49] fails to correlate radon anomaly with parameters like tidal loading and atmospheric electromagnetic radiation before earthquakes. Quiescence in radon concentration was also observed by Muto et al [50] before the 2018 Osaka earthquake.…”

Is Resilient Transportation Infrastructure Low-Carbon? Evidence from High-Speed Railway Projects in China

“…From the perspective of the function of the transportation infrastructure construction project, the social and urban producing activities depend on the availability of the transportation network [ 24 – 27 ]. When the transportation infrastructure project operates under uncertain conditions and disturbances and the ability to quickly restore an acceptable level of service after a disruptive event occurs, it is the basis for the survival of the whole city [ 28 , 29 ].…”