Determination of the Epidemic Threshold of an Infectious Disease

Abstract

Background. The purpose of this work was to develop a program algorithm for calculating and graphically constructing the level of the epidemic threshold of an infectious disease. Material and methods. To calculate the epidemic threshold of an infectious disease, a statistical method was applied. Microsoft Visual Basic was used (as a programming language and development environment) to write the program algorithm. MS Excel was used to enter the input data of the weekly incidence rate. Results. The algorithm of the program is quite easy to use; it consists of 12 consecutive steps with the entry of relevant data in each field of the window that appears. Thus, weekly information on the level of morbidity in a certain region for any period of the year (maximum 52 weeks) is entered into the program. After entering the information, the program displays a graph with the epidemic threshold value for each week. Due to this, it is possible to compare the level of the epidemic threshold in different periods of the year. Conclusions. The developed computer program makes it possible to determine the epidemic threshold of any infectious disease. It can be used to analyze and predict any infectious processes that are permanent, including COVID-19.