Determination of the Main Influencing Factors on Road Fatalities Using an Integrated Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithm

Abstract

This paper proposed an integrated algorithm of neuro-fuzzy techniques to examine the complex impact of socio-technical influencing factors on road fatalities. The proposed algorithm could handle complexity, non-linearity and fuzziness in the modeling environment due to its mechanism. The Neuro-fuzzy algorithm for determination of the potential influencing factors on road fatalities consisted of two phases. In the first phase, intelligent techniques are compared for their improved accuracy in predicting fatality rate with respect to some socio-technical influencing factors. Then in the second phase, sensitivity analysis is performed to calculate the pure effect on fatality rate of the potential influencing factors. The applicability and usefulness of the proposed algorithm is illustrated using the data in Iran provincial road transportation systems in the time period 2012-2014. Results show that road design improvement, number of trips, and number of passengers are the most influencing factors on provincial road fatality rate.