Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica City, Peru

Abstract

The research entitled, "Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica city-Peru", has as objective to determine and analyze the actual endowment and prognosis of the drinking water system in the city of Huancavelica. The city of Huancavelica has a population of approximately 50,000.00 inhabitants and 10,680.00 users of drinking water and sewerage according to the source Companies Providing This Service, the same one that is located in the western chain and central saw range of Perú and belongs to a cold climate. The sample was extracted through Companies Providing This Service EMAPA Huancavelica SA (Anonymous Society), which corresponds to 1,296 data from the consumption of water in cubic meters of each dwelling located in the various categories of each sector. The results obtained from the research indicate that the category that consumed more water during the period 2004-2018 was the domestic category, the same one that had an average of 1,152,123 cubic meters, this is due to the population growth of each year. On the other side, the category that consumed the least water was the social category, the average consumption of which was 11,903.47 cubic meters. In addition, the greatest variability in water consumption is in the state category, the total variation being equal to 21.6%. In the Huancavelica city, water consumption has a growing trend and to predict the volume of drinking water consumption by 2030, water consumption was transformed by first differences, using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model for total consumption model (0-1-1) (2-0-0)-12 and for the domestic consumption the ARIMA model (0-1-2) (0-0-2)-12. On the other hand, water consumption was analyzed on a monthly basis in which there is greater variability for the months June-6 and December-12. It was taken into account for the calculation of the endowment the domestic consumption, having values ranging from 6.45 L/inhab/day until 1,460 L/inhab/day, which reflects a considerable variation to consider. The average value in the spring station is 109.44 L/inhab/day, in the summer station it is 116.93 L/inhab/day, in the autumn station it is 117.17 L/inhab/day and in the winter station it is 108.48 L/inhab/day. Also, the average minimum endowment equal to 7.66 L/inhab/day was obtained, the average maximum endowment is of 569.03 L/inhab/day and the actual endowment 113.01 L/inhab/day. Finally, it is concluded that the estimated average actual endowment for the Huancavelica city, that is to say, 113.01 L/inhab/day, is much less than that indicated in the Norma OS.100 of the Basic Considerations of Sanitary Infrastructure Design of the RNE (Reglamento Nacional de Edificaciones), the same one that mentions the endowment equal to 180 L/inhab/day for cold climates, which means a reduction of costs in the dimensioning of hydraulic structures and sanitation and drinking water works.