Determination of weight loss effectiveness evaluation indexes and establishment of a nomogram for forecasting the probability of effectiveness of weight loss in bariatric surgery: a retrospective cohort

Abstract

Background: The purpose of this research was to determine the index that contributes the most to assessing the effectiveness of weight loss 1 year following bariatric surgery and to implement it as the clinical outcome to develop and confirm a nomogram to predict whether bariatric surgery would be effective. Methods: Patient information was extracted from the Chinese Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database for this retrospective study. The most contributing weight loss effectiveness evaluation index was created using canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and the predictors were screened using logistic regression analysis. A nomogram for estimating the likelihood of effectiveness of weight loss was constructed, and its performance was further verified. Results: Information was obtained for 540 patients, including 30 variables. According to the CCA, ≥25 percentage total weight loss was found to be the most correlated with patient information and contribute the most as a weight loss effectiveness evaluation index. Logistic regression analysis and nomogram scores identified age, surgical strategy, abdominal circumference, weight loss history, and hyperlipidemia as predictors of effectiveness in weight loss. The prediction model’s discrimination, accuracy, and clinical benefit were demonstrated by the consistency index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Conclusions: The authors determined a 25 percentage total weight loss as an index for weight loss effectiveness assessment by CCA and next established and validated a nomogram, which demonstrated promising performance in predicting the probability of effectiveness of weight loss in bariatric surgery. The nomogram might be a valuable tool in clinical practice.

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting diabetes remission at 3 months after bariatric surgery in patients with obesity combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus

“…The flowchart of this study is shown in Figure 1. 15 The exclusion criteria were: patients who had previously undergone BMS; patients who required revision surgery within 3 months after the initial surgery; patients who experienced severe complications within 3 months after the initial surgery; patients with severe organ failure; patients with severe infection; and patients with active tumours. Initially, 684 patients were screened, and, after applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 389 patients were confirmed as eligible for this study.…”

“…The Chinese Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database is the largest database in China for patients undergoing bariatric surgery. It was established in 2008 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University and data for the database were collected from 64 cities across China, with participation from a total of 128 hospitals or bariatric surgery centres 15 . The exclusion criteria were: patients who had previously undergone BMS; patients who required revision surgery within 3 months after the initial surgery; patients who experienced severe complications within 3 months after the initial surgery; patients with severe organ failure; patients with severe infection; and patients with active tumours.…”