Determining environmental drivers of global mud snail invasions using climate and hydroclimate models

Abstract

Climate change and invasive species represent two intertwined global environmental challenges profoundly affecting freshwater ecosystems. This study uses Ecological Niche Modeling along with risk screening to delve into the preferences and potential distribution of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, an invasive species, in relation to climate zones and habitat types, shedding light on the critical importance of coastal wetlands and high soil organic carbon content in shaping habitat suitability. Our findings underscore that P. antipodarum exhibits a distinct affinity for cool temperate, moist climates, as well as temperate floodplain rivers, wetlands, and coastal areas. Notably, coastal wetlands, endowed with elevated soil organic carbon levels, emerged as pivotal habitats for this species. Projections indicated a significant expansion in North America, potentially extending into South America. Türkiye reveals an intriguing alignment between its habitat and the natural distribution areas of P. antipodarum, presenting potential for habitat contraction while still retaining a broader range compared to other regions. These potential expansions were predominantly driven by climate suitability, playing a pivotal role in the invasiveness of P. antipodarum, with anticipated future climate regimes exerting substantial influence on its dispersal capabilities.