Determining Future Precipitation Probability for Kahramanmaras City Using Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

Precipitation is unique source meeting water need of all ecosystems in the world. It is the irreplaceable element of the organism life. Turkey, particularly its Mediterranean region, ranks among the regions expected precipitation changes due to climate change. Kahramanmaras is located in Mediterranean region where is expected to experience the effects of the climate change at the very most. Since Kahramanmaras has the largest water reserve in Turkey, it is acknowledged as a rational way that alterations in the area should be watched consistently and future plans should be made in the light of a set of prediction models. In this study, it is aimed to predict future precipitation probability for Kahramanmaras city using Markov chain model. For this purpose, 44 years precipitation data including 1970-2014 period belonging to Kahramanmaras precipitation station has been used.