Determining shoreline response to sea level rise

Dean, Robert G.; Houston, James R.

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.03.009

Cited by 96 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…They assumed an average beach height of 12 m (∼39 ft) and +1 m sea level rise, an average beach slope of 1:50, and a required nourishment volume of 6,000 m 3 /km/yr (12,553 cy/mi/yr). Dean and Houston () estimated a comparable beach nourishment volume assuming a moderate sea level rise (∼0.32 m, 1 ft) in the year 2065: 4,300 m 3 /km/yr. When applying these numbers to the Californian coast, 1.9 million m 3 /yr or 190 million m 3 (248 million cy) of sand is needed over the next 100 years (Ewing and Flick, ).…”

Section: Adaptation Measures and Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to resilience: adapting to sea level rise in Los Angeles

Aerts

Barnard

Botzen

et al. 2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Los Angeles (LA) County's coastal areas are highly valued for their natural benefits and their economic contributions to the region. While LA County already has a high level of exposure to flooding (e.g. people, ports, and harbors), climate change and sea level rise will increase flood risk; anticipating this risk requires adaptation planning to mitigate social, economic, and physical damage. This study provides an overview of the potential effects of sea level rise on coastal LA County and describes adaptation pathways and estimates associated costs in order to cope with sea level rise. An adaptation pathway in this study is defined as the collection of measures (e.g., beach nourishment, dune restoration, flood-proofing buildings, and levees) required to lower flood risk. The aim of using different adaptation pathways is to enable a transition from one methodology to another over time. These pathways address uncertainty in future projections, allowing for flexibility among policies and potentially spreading the costs over time. Maintaining beaches, dunes, and their natural dynamics is the foundation of each of the three adaptation pathways, which address the importance of beaches for recreation, environmental value, and flood protection. In some scenarios, owing to high projections of sea level rise, additional technical engineering options such as levees and sluices may be needed to reduce flood risk. The research suggests three adaptation pathways, anticipating a +1 ft (0.3 m) to +7 ft (+2 m) sea level rise by year 2100. Total adaptation costs vary between $4.3 and $6.4 bn, depending on measures included in the adaptation pathway.

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Section: Adaptation Measures and Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to resilience: adapting to sea level rise in Los Angeles

Aerts

Barnard

Botzen

et al. 2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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“…Although many researchers have modified the Bruun rule [e.g. Rosati et al, 2013;Dean and Houston, 2016] or developed new models [e.g. Brooks and Spencer, 2012;Ranasinghe et al, 2012] for the estimation of long-term shoreline change, the Bruun rule is still the viable model for the projection of future erosion due to SLR on a national scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Future Beach Loss in Japan Due to Sea-Level Rise and Uncertainties in Projected Beach Loss

Udo

Takeda

2017

Coastal Engineering Journal

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In this study, we projected the future beach loss in Japan's 77 coastal zones due to sea-level rise (SLR) based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and 21 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The beach-loss curve for SLR in Japan was constructed, and uncertainties associated with SLR projections and sediment sizes were evaluated. Beach-loss rates in the future (2081-2100) were projected to be 62% for the ensemble mean RCP2.6 scenario, 71% for RCP4.5, 73% for RCP6.0, and 83% for RCP8.5, and the rates projected by the CMIP5 models for RCP4.5 ranged widely from 61% to 87%. The effect of the spatial distribution of SLR in each CMIP5 model on beachloss rate in Japan is insignificant, while the effects of differences in the SLR values among RCP scenario and CMIP5 models are significant. The maximum uncertainties associated with sediment sizes (0.2--Q.6 mm) against the same SLR were assessed to be 38%. Despite significant uncertainties in the projected beach loss, results in the near future (2046--2065) reveal that the beach-loss rates between 18% and 79% differed by 60% in the near future and between 28% and 96% differed by 70% in the future. For the worst case scenario in the near future, the projected beach width is less than 10m in more than half of the 77 coastal zones, which would cause serious damage to coastal structures such as seawalls and revetments in beach areas. Thus, the development of effective measures to combat beach loss is critical for Japan's coastal management.

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“…The shoreline shifts in the N and P tests were caused by the periodic sand placement (source) and overwash (sink). An equation with terms representing all phenomena affecting shoreline change including Bruun-rule recession, onshore sand transport, sand sources and sinks, and longshore transport gradients was already established [e.g., Dean and Houston (2016)]. The measured shoreline shifts are compared with the conventional method based on the conservation of sand volume and active profile translation.…”

Section: Comparison Of Data With Conventional Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The concept of an equilibrium beach profile (Dean 1991) is expedient and has been adopted for the design of beachfills for beach nourishment (USACE 2003). The concept of an equilibrium profile has also been adopted for the prediction of shoreline response to sand sources, sinks, longshore sand transport gradients, and sea level rise [e.g., Dean and Houston (2016) The degree of the equilibrium beach profile modification caused by periodic beachfill placement or overwash may be difficult to quantify for natural beaches whose profiles change with water level and wave conditions. No reliable model exists to predict long-term beach profile evolution including periodic beachfill placement or frequent overwash (Kobayashi 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Equilibrium Beach Profile with Net Cross-Shore Sand Transport

Mallavarapu

2018

J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng.

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Determining shoreline response to sea level rise

Cited by 96 publications

References 23 publications

Pathways to resilience: adapting to sea level rise in Los Angeles

Pathways to resilience: adapting to sea level rise in Los Angeles

Projections of Future Beach Loss in Japan Due to Sea-Level Rise and Uncertainties in Projected Beach Loss

Equilibrium Beach Profile with Net Cross-Shore Sand Transport

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