Deterrence effect of penalties upon adolescent cannabis use

Abstract

Objective: Penalties are used in an effort to curtail drug use by citizens in most societies. There are growing calls for a reduction or elimination of such penalties. Deterrence theory suggests that use should increase if penalties reduce and vice versa. We sought to examine the relationship between changes to penalties for drug possession and adolescent cannabis use. Method: Ten instances of penalty change occurred in Europe between 2000 and 2014, seven of which involved penalty reduction and three involved penalty increase. We conducted a secondary analysis of a series of cross-sectional surveys of 15–16-year-old school children, the ESPAD surveys, which are conducted every four years. We focused on past month cannabis use. We anticipated that an eight-year time span before and after each penalty change would yield two data points either side of the change. A simple trend line was fitted to the data points for each country. Results: In eight cases, the trend slope in past month cannabis use was in the direction predicted by deterrence theory, the two exceptions being the UK policy changes. Using the principals of binomial distributions, the likelihood of this happening by chance is 56/1024 = 0.05. The median change in the baseline prevalence rate was by 21%. Conclusions: The science seems far from settled on this issue. There remains a distinct possibility that reducing penalties could contribute to small increases in adolescent cannabis use and consequently increase cannabis-related harms. This possibility should be considered in any political decision-making influencing drug policy changes.

Navigating the Grey Zone: The Impact of Legislative Frameworks in North America and Europe on Adolescent Cannabis Use—A Systematic Review

“…Conversely, Vaičiūnas et al [ 29 ] found that across ten years in the Baltic states and Poland, cannabis consumption among young males varied more than among young females. Smyth et al [ 6 ] discovered that variations in punishments were consistent with the deterrence hypothesis in several European nations, where more lenient penalties led to an increase in teenage use and where tougher penalties led to a drop in use.…”

“…Health professionals often express heightened concerns about adolescents in relation to substance use and the policies surrounding it. Among 15- to 24-year-olds, substance use stands as the primary modifiable risk factor for global morbidity; specifically, cannabis dependence contributes more significantly to morbidity among adolescents worldwide than any other illicit drug [ 6 ]. Moreover, the evolving landscape of cannabis legalization in various regions poses a unique challenge in navigating policy, as the shift in legality has prompted debates about its accessibility and potential impact on adolescent patterns of use [ 7 ].…”