Developing a dynamic model for risk analysis under uncertainty: Case of third-party damage on subsea pipelines

Li, Xinhong; Chen, Guo-Ming; Jiang, Shengyu; He, Rui; Xu, Changhang; Zhu, Hui

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2018.05.001

Cited by 67 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Zadeh to solve the problem of uncertainty or fuzziness [40]. According to the recent studies, ZFNs and TFNs are simple and efficient methods to describe the uncertainty and fuzziness problems [41][42][43]. In addition, these values facilitate the smooth transition in the process of translating the qualitative linguistic variables of a specific failure probability into a single value.…”

Section: Fuzzy Eory Fuzzy Theory Is a Methods Proposed Bymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Fan

et al. 2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Oxygen lances (OLs) are important devices used in converter steel making. However, the occurrence of OL burning loss (OLBL) failure may lead to explosion accidents. To better prevent OLBL failure, it is necessary to perform a probabilistic assessment. Bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory was proposed to assess OLBL, which represents a hazardous event. In this paper, fuzzy theory based on triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) was applied to calculate the failure data. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) in combination with the improved similarity aggregation method (ISAM) was employed to reduce the error generated due to the subjective judgement of experts. Furthermore, a comprehensive importance analysis method was developed to rank the importance of basic events (BEs), facilitating the adoption of the corresponding safety decisions. When performing fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA), the occurrence probability of outcome events (OEs) was determined by conducting a layer of protection analysis (LOPA). Finally, safety measures were proposed based on the assessment results to achieve safe production. The results indicated that the use of bow-tie analysis is appropriate to perform qualitative and quantitative assessment. Through bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory, the occurrence probability of OLBL was determined to be in the interval (5.34E − 02, 2.69E − 01). By adding independent protective layers (IPLs), the occurrence probability of OEs caused by OLBL can be effectively reduced.

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Section: Fuzzy Eory Fuzzy Theory Is a Methods Proposed Bymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Fan

et al. 2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…Entropy, which is a governing physical law of thermodynamics, can be used as a measure of uncertainty or disorder [35]. Due to large random parameters or events in natural and social science, entropy is widely used in numerous research fields [36], [37]. Because there are two incompatible states of success and failure in the connection of riser joints, the uncertainty is a typical binomial distribution.…”

Section: Risk Assessment Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Efficient Modeling and Optimization Approach for Pressure Testing During Reentry Operation of Deepwater Drilling Riser System

2020

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Pressure testing should be conducted on auxiliary lines during riser reentry to ensure the seal security of connection positions. The proper setting of the number and positions of pressure testing is essential because it can significantly reduce the high costs of offshore drilling. However, the analysis and optimization models for pressure testing during riser reentry were not resolved satisfactorily in engineering practice. This study proposes an efficient optimization procedure for pressure testing during riser reentry. A time-efficiency evaluation model and a risk assessment model are established based on the pressure testing process and entropy theory. The modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is used to optimize the pressure testing process by incorporating the above proposed models. The optimization procedure is illustrated by a case study. The optimal results from the proposed procedure are compared with those from the recommended practices. The resulting variabilities due to seal reliability, water depth, and pressure testing time are also discussed. The study shows that the optimization procedure can improve the operation efficiency of the riser reentry process by 20% and 38% compared to two recommended practices. The proposed procedure is verified to be an efficient alternative for decision making in pressure testing to improve the economic efficiency and ensure safety during riser reentry. INDEX TERMS Pressure testing, riser, time-efficiency evaluation, risk assessment, artificial bee colony algorithm, optimization. GUOMING CHEN received the B.E. and M.E. degrees in petroleum mechanical engineering and the Ph.D. degree in mechanical design and theory from the

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“…3,28,[50][51][52] Another source of probability, as well as the failure and repair rates of equipment in the RRC system, is obtained from the literature, handbook, and failure database, such as OREDA, HSE, and OGP. 3,28,[50][51][52] Another source of probability, as well as the failure and repair rates of equipment in the RRC system, is obtained from the literature, handbook, and failure database, such as OREDA, HSE, and OGP.…”

Section: Dbn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…fuzzy number can be transformed into fuzzy failure probability of basic events. 3,28,[50][51][52] Another source of probability, as well as the failure and repair rates of equipment in the RRC system, is obtained from the literature, handbook, and failure database, such as OREDA, HSE, and OGP. 3,28 With respect to the CPTs of different factors, the invited domain experts discussed and determined the possible data based on their expertise.…”

Section: Dbn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate

Chang

Zhang

et al. 2019

Energy Science & Engineering

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The marine natural gas hydrate is considered to have huge resource potential in the South China Sea, and a sixty‐day production test has been successfully conducted in 2017. As the crucial and most vulnerable connection of floating platform and subsea wellhead, the risers are of paramount importance in safe production test of the hydrate. Due to harsh environment and the possible drive off and drift off events induced by failure of dynamic positioning system of the platform, the unplanned emergency disconnect of risers is an integral preventive measure to avoid accidents and secure the well. Once the disconnect occurs, the huge potential energy stored in the riser column will release and consequently cause violent axial recoil, which will cause serious consequences if the recoil control fails. This paper presented a quantitative risk assessment approach on the basis of dynamic Bayesian networks to dynamically predict the risk of riser recoil control failure during production test of hydrate. By using the proposed method, the dynamic failure risk of the riser recoil control was figured out, and the most contributory factors were identified. The practical application of the proposed methodology was demonstrated through a case study. Results indicated that the probability of riser recoil control failure can be significantly decreased within one year through equipment repair, and the failure and repair rates of shutoff valves and main air isolation valves are the most contributory factors. Some corresponding safety control measures were proposed to further mitigate the risk of riser recoil control failure during the production test of hydrate.

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Developing a dynamic model for risk analysis under uncertainty: Case of third-party damage on subsea pipelines

Cited by 67 publications

References 35 publications

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

An Efficient Modeling and Optimization Approach for Pressure Testing During Reentry Operation of Deepwater Drilling Riser System

Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate

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