Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

Nguyen, Phong Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

doi:10.1063/1.5011564

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 29 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Traffic volume is often forecasted in a stochastic way and geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is one of the most commonly used methods for analyzing stochastic movement. The application of GBM in predicting traffic volume can be found in many research works in the literature (Brandao and Saraiva, 2008; Galera and Soliño, 2010; Phong et al , 2017). In this research, the traffic volume is measured monthly and the traffic volume in one month is a function of the volume in the previous month: where V t +1 indicates the traffic volume to be estimated and V t is the traffic volume in the previous month.…”

Section: Concession Period Determination Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk

Jin

Liu

et al. 2019

ECAM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose Targeting public–private partnership (PPP) projects, the purpose of this paper is to help decision makers fairly allocate financial risk between governments and private investors through a properly designed length of concession period. Design/methodology/approach On the one hand, the length of the concession period should be long enough to help private investors to achieve their expected profits. On the other hand, the length of a concession period cannot be decided without agreeing on an upper limit, since an overlong concession period takes too much time for governments to recover their investment and leads to an overly lucrative condition for private investors. Following this logic, the concession period decision range is decided, which defines the lower and upper limits for the length of the concession period. The net present values (NPVs) for governments and private investors are estimated via Monte Carlo simulation to better reflect the uncertainties. To further decide on the optimal length of the concession period, the principle of fair risk allocation between governments and private investors is adopted. The concession period, as an important project parameter, should help to minimize the financial risk gap between governments and private investors. Findings The developed concession period determination process is validated using a numerical example of a PPP transportation project. The analysis outcomes show that the proposed methodology is capable of determining the length of the concession period so as to control private investors’ profit within a reasonable range while achieving a fair allocation of financial risk between governments and private investors. The outcomes also indicate that, before determining the optimal length for the concession period, governments may need to make a choice between better financial risk allocation or stringent profit control for private investors. Research limitations/implications The determination process developed here may be inapplicable to social infrastructure PPPs where the income stream is less predictable. In addition, the data analysis targets a highway project with a capital subsidy provided by the government. To strengthen the effectiveness of the proposed determination process, further research should apply the model to PPPs with other kinds of government support. Originality/value The concession period for a PPP project is an important parameter and it is a common practice for governments to predetermine the length of the concession period before inviting tenders. The existing models for determining the concession period focus too much on the simulation of NPVs for project parties and neglect the importance of risk allocation in signing and maintaining a long-term contract. There is also a lack of research to evaluate the influence of governments’ preferences on the length of the concession period. To overcome the limitations of the existing models and enrich the methodology for concession period determination, this paper contributes to the body of knowledge by developing a concession period determination process which can help governments to make better decisions. The financial risk is expected to be more evenly shared between governments and private investors with the concession period derived from the proposed process. This determination process is also capable of evaluating the influence of governments’ preferences on the length of the concession period.

show abstract

Section: Concession Period Determination Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk

Jin

Liu

et al. 2019

ECAM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The Vietnamese economy shows growth overcoming obstacles and challenges [16][17][18]. This is partially due to the research successes of the construction and engineering material segments [19][20][21][22]. This paper showed that barite mortar's consistency is higher than standard mortar's when sand is replaced with barite powder in percentages up to 30%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiation Shielding Properties Prediction of Barite used as Small Aggregate in Mortar

Vu¹,

Tran²,

Nguyen³

et al. 2020

Eng. Technol. Appl. Sci. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Construction materials used in the nuclear industry used to be mainly heavy materials, including lead plates, radiation-resistant heavy concrete, etc. However, these materials are either toxic after a long time of use (lead) or difficult to construct (radiation-resistant heavy concrete) and their cost is rather high. Therefore, there is a need for the manufacturing of a new kind of material with good radiation resistance, which is light, easy to use, and costs less. Barium is less toxic and more cost-effective than lead. Due to the importance of barium compounds in radiation shielding, the study of gamma radiation interactions within these compounds becomes essential, so the most important part of such a study is the experimental one, which shows the effect of the barite powder in the radiation resistance of the mortar. The research results show that the higher the thickness and percentage of barite powder, the higher is the radiation resistance.

show abstract

“…Accordingly, construction costs are probable to be higher than initially planned by contractors. Contractors should: (i) subscribe to risk and insurance policies for damages caused by laws, decrees, and circulars (Phong, Likhitruangsilp, & Onishi, 2017;; (ii) negotiate with owners the contractual terms regarding changes in laws, circulars, decrees, and proposing the extensions of time and cost increases that favor the contractor.…”

Section: State Management-related Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Cost Overruns in Construction Projects of International Contractors in Vietnam

Vu¹,

Pham²,

Nguyen³

et al. 2020

JAFEB

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A construction project is a designed product made up of labors, materials, and installations in the project positioned on the ground and may include the underground and ground section, and the section in water or on the water surface. It is a civil, industrial, transport, agricultural and rural development, infrastructure, or some other. A key phase in the life cycle of these construction projects is the implementation when building products are made directly with workers, equipment, materials, and managers. If there is a lack of management experience, information, and problem-solving solutions to tackle the risks faced by contractors, especially foreign ones, will fail in controlling the project's cost. This study was conducted with investigations, discussions, and evaluation of the factors that lead to cost overruns in the construction projects of international contractors in Vietnam. The principal component analysis (PCA) showed that those factors that influence cost overruns these construction projects fall into five general groups, including factors related to (i) the owners, (ii) the foreign contractors, (iii) the subcontractors and suppliers, (iv) state management, and (v) the project itself. Besides, the study proposes solutions to limit cost overruns in construction projects and improve the profitability of international contractors in Vietnam.

show abstract

Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

Cited by 9 publications

References 29 publications

Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk

Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk

Radiation Shielding Properties Prediction of Barite used as Small Aggregate in Mortar

Factors Influencing Cost Overruns in Construction Projects of International Contractors in Vietnam

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About