Developing a system dynamics model to analyse environmental problem in construction site

Haron, Fatin Fasehah; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

doi:10.1063/1.5012200

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 3 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It uses system feedback, time delay, amplifications, nonlinearities, and structural relationships between the elements of a system that could be more relevant in determining the behavior of an aggregated system than if individual components were to be used (Forrester, 1961; Sterman, 2000). System dynamics modeling approaches have been largely described in the literature (Cavana, 2003; Maani & Cavana, 2007; Sterman, 2000) and they have been used in impact assessment (Çelebi, 2019; Chica‐Morales et al., 2021; Haron & Hawari, 2017; Karami et al., 2017). The approach commences with dynamic hypothesis development, known as a causal loop diagram (CLD) or conceptual model, which is then translated into stocks and flows diagrams (SFDs) for quantifications and simulations (Sokame et al., 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

Sokame,

Agboka,

Kimathi

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) infestations cause significant damage to crops and pastureland, impeding food security and livelihoods globally. In recent years, some East African countries have suffered severe desert locust outbreaks, causing significant harm to agriculture and local communities. To comprehensively understand and mitigate the socio‐economic impacts of this pest, an integrated assessment approach is crucial. This study proposes an integrated assessment model that combines ecological, economic, and social dimensions to analyze the multifaceted impacts of the desert locust on the rate of urbanization changes, farming expansion, and food production and how they lead to food unavailability (demand, supply, and price) and food and nutrition insecurity in Eastern Africa. A system dynamics‐based assessment model was first developed for Sudan using the dynamic relations among the factors and their variations over time and how they affect the socio‐economic variables. The developed model was used to spatially simulate the impacts over the entire Eastern Africa. Various scenarios were further simulated and analyzed, incorporating different policy options to effectively mitigate the impacts. Results demonstrated that in all the countries, desert locusts extensively contribute to the slowing down of farming expansion and food production and supply. Consequently, these factors lead to increased urbanization rates through people rural‐urban migration and food demand at different magnitudes across different countries. By considering both short‐term and long‐term effects, this approach aims to provide policymakers, researchers, and practitioners with a holistic understanding of the complex dynamics involved and inform effective management strategies. For example, communities equipped with accurate breeding detection tools and employing an integrated pest management strategy combining chemical pesticides and biopesticides had the highest potential for effectively mitigating the future impacts of desert locusts for enhancing community livelihood.

show abstract