Developing<i>Wolbachia</i>-based disease interventions for an extreme environment

Ross, Perran A; Elfékih, Samia; Collier, Sophie; Klein, Melissa J.; Lee, Su Shyan; Dunn, Michael; Jackson, Sarah; Zhang, Yexin; Axford, Jason K.; Gu, Xinyue; Nasar, Majed S; Paradkar, Prasad N.; Tawfik, Essam A.; Jiggins, Francis M.; Almalik, Abdulaziz; Al-Fageeh, Mohamed B.; Hoffmann, Ary A.

doi:10.1101/2022.07.26.501527

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…32 Wolbachia experts recognize that strain selection for a given intervention must account for local environmental realities. 15 Recent studies have focused on deployment in extreme environments 33 and the development of strains with increased phenotypic stability under heat stress. 34 Even so, it is understood that "ideal Wolbachia strains for population replacement do not exist, requiring a trade-off between Wolbachia infection stability, host fitness costs, and pathogen blocking."…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wolbachia experts recognize that strain selection for a given intervention must account for local environmental realities. 15 Recent studies have focused on deployment in extreme environments 33 and the development of strains with increased phenotypic stability under heat stress. 34 Even so, it is understood that “ ideal Wolbachia strains for population replacement do not exist, requiring a trade-off between Wolbachia infection stability, host fitness costs, and pathogen blocking.” 15 For decisionmakers to appropriately weigh the odds between wMel and its alternatives as we move into an uncertain and more variable climate future, computational and bench scientists should explicitly account for predictions of regional warming – including heat extremes – in their experimental designs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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wMelreplacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Vásquez

Kueppers

Rašić

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rising temperatures and increasing temperature variability are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne disease. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Laboratory and field observations show that the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress. Here, we examine whether and how climate warming may impact wMel-based replacement. We integrate empirical data on the temperature sensitivity of wMel bacteria into a mechanistic model of population dynamics for the dengue vector Aedes aegypti and use CMIP5 climate projections and historical temperature records from Cairns, Australia to simulate vector control interventions. We show that higher mean temperatures are predicted to lower wMel infection frequency and that extended heatwaves have the potential to reverse the public health benefits of this intervention. Sensitivity analysis probing the thermal limits of wMel replacement reveal that, under existing projections, operational adaptations would be required for heatwaves lasting longer than two weeks. We conclude that this technology is expected to be robust to both the increased mean temperatures and heatwaves associated with near-term climate change in temperate regions. However, more rapid warming or tropical and inland regions that presently feature hotter baselines may challenge these tested limits, requiring further research.

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