Developing integrated models by coupling together existing models; land use, economics, demographics and transport in Wellington, New Zealand

Harvey, Emily P.; Cardwell, Robert C.; McDonald, Garry W.; Delden, Hedwig van; Vanhout, Roel; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Forgie, Vicky; Belt, Marjan van den

doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.07.004

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In the prior sections (Sections 2.1-2.3), the structures and functionalities of the three models were introduced; this section introduces how they are coupled in an integrated modeling framework. Previous studies have shown that computer models can be coupled in either a loose or a tight manner (Harvey et al, 2019;Bhatt et al, 2014;Murray-Rust et al, 2014;Du et al, 2020;Li et al, 2021). The former refers to models that are linked together by input/output data interfaces.…”

Section: Model Integration and Flowchart Of The Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes

Jiang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. In many flood-prone areas, it is essential for emergency responders to use advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed flood evacuation plans. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how evacuation performances are affected by the arrangement of evacuation shelters regarding their number and geographical distribution and human behaviors regarding the heterogeneity of household evacuation preparation times and route searching strategies. In this study, we develop an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples (1) a hydrodynamic model for flood simulation, (2) an agent-based model for evacuation management policies and human behaviors, and (3) a transportation model for simulating household evacuation processes in a road network. We apply the model to the Xiong’an New Area and examine household evacuation outcomes under various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results show that household evacuation processes are significantly affected by the number and geographical distribution of evacuation shelters. Surprisingly, we find that establishing more shelters may not improve evacuation results if the shelters are not strategically located. We also find that low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times can result in heavy traffic congestion and long evacuation clearance times. If each household selects their own shortest route without considering the effects of other evacuees’ route choices, traffic congestions will likely to occur, thereby reducing system-level evacuation performance. These results demonstrate the unique functionality of our model to support flood risk assessment and to advance our understanding of how the multiple management and behavioral factors jointly affect evacuation performances.

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Section: Model Integration and Flowchart Of The Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes

Jiang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…The mutual interaction of land use and transport has been widely documented [35][36][37][38] and models developed using these principles have been useful in the evaluation of policy and planning, such as the MEPLAN model for Leeds and Dortmund [39] and PECAS for Montgomery and Alberta [40,41]. For this paper, a cellular automata-based integrated land use transport model developed within the METRONAMICA framework by the Research Institute for Knowledge System (RIKS) [31] and used by amongst others [42][43][44][45][46][47] is presented here to show the relationship between land use and transport. This model was selected because the literature review revealed that there was a gap in both South African and African literature on the application and utilisation of a cellular automata (CA)-based land use transport model to understand urban dynamics, in that regard, METRONAMICA was an ideal model.…”

Section: The Metronamica Land Use Transport Model (M-lut)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons Learned from Applying an Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Model to Address Issues of Social and Economic Exclusion of Marginalised Groups: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa

2021

Self Cite

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The Group Areas Act of 1950 has resulted in post-apartheid South African cities being characterised by spatial patterns with limited access to social and economic opportunities for the black and coloured population. Typically, high-density low-income housing is located peripherally, while low density high-income housing is located in accessible central areas. With increased rural-to-urban migration, the demand for formal housing has historically surpassed supply, which has increased the growth of informal settlements. Current discourse within South African land use policy suggests that in-situ upgrading of informal housing is a viable response to integrate informal settlements into the formal city. In parallel, it is proposed that new low-income residential areas and employment-generating land uses should be located along transport corridors to improve access to transport, its infrastructure and the opportunities it provides for previously marginalised groups. This study uses Cape Town as a case city to explore two land-use driven development strategies directed at informal settlements and low-income housing. A dynamic land use transport model based on a cellular automata land use model and a four-stage transport model was used to simulate land use and transport changes. Specifically, in-situ upgrading of informal settlements and strategically locating new low-income residential and employment generating land uses along transport corridors were considered. The results from the analysis suggest that in-situ upgrading is a viable option only if new informal settlements are in areas with easy access to economic centres. With regards to low-income housing, targeted interventions aimed at ‘unlocking’ low-income housing activities along transport corridors were found to be useful. However, it was also observed that middle-income residential development and employment generating activities were also attracted to the same corridors, thus, resulting in mixed land uses, which is beneficial but can potentially result in rental bids between low and middle-income earners thus displacing low-income earners away from these areas.

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“…In other critical infrastructure systems, such as transportation, there is a well-established set of open-source spatio-temporal tools, methods and models that can be applied to answer questions pertaining to interactions between land use, transportation and the environment (Capelle, Sturm, Vidard, & Morton, 2019;Harvey et al, 2019;Kii, Moeckel, & Thill, 2019). Some private companies have developed their own internal capabilities to assess how the movement of people and vehicles may place new demand on the cellular network.…”

Section: Review Of Digital Infrastructure Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of spatio-temporal infrastructure assessment: Evidence for 5G from the Oxford–Cambridge Arc

Oughton

Russell

2020

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

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The roll-out of 5G infrastructure can provide enhanced high capacity, low latency communications enabling a range of new use cases. However, to deliver the improvements 5G promises, we need to understand how to enhance capacity and coverage, at reasonable cost, across space and over time. In this paper, we take a spatiotemporal simulation modeling approach, using industry-standard engineering models of 5G wireless networks, to test how different infrastructure strategies perform under scenarios of uncertain future demand. We use coupled open-source models to analyze a UK growth corridor, a system-of-cities comprising 7 urban areas, known as the Oxford-Cambridge Arc. We find that population growth has a marginal impact on total demand for 5G (up to 15%), as the main factor driving demand is the increase in per user data consumption resulting mainly from video. Additionally, the results suggest only limited justification for deploying 5G based purely on the need for more capacity. Strategies which reuse existing brownfield Macro Cell sites are enough to meet future demand for Enhanced Mobile Broadband, except in the densest urban areas. While spatio-temporal analysis of infrastructure is common in some sectors (e.g. transport, energy and water), there has been a lack of open analysis of digital infrastructure. This study makes a novel contribution by providing an open and reproducible spatiotemporal assessment of different 5G technologies at a time when 5G is starting to roll-out around the world.

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Developing integrated models by coupling together existing models; land use, economics, demographics and transport in Wellington, New Zealand

Cited by 12 publications

References 13 publications

Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes

Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes

Lessons Learned from Applying an Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Model to Address Issues of Social and Economic Exclusion of Marginalised Groups: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa

The importance of spatio-temporal infrastructure assessment: Evidence for 5G from the Oxford–Cambridge Arc

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