Developing Machine Learning–Based Predictive Models for Hallux Valgus Recurrence Based on Measurements From Radiographs

Abstract

Background: Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used to predict the prognosis of numerous diseases. This retrospective analysis aimed to develop a prediction model using ML algorithms and to identify predictors associated with the recurrence of hallux valgus (HV) following surgery. Methods: A total of 198 symptomatic feet that underwent chevron osteotomy combined with a distal soft tissue procedure were enrolled and analyzed from 2 independent medical centers. The feet were grouped according to nonrecurrence or recurrence based on 1-year follow-up outcomes. Preoperative weightbearing radiographs and immediate postoperative nonweightbearing radiographs were obtained for each HV foot. Radiographic measurements (eg, HV angle and intermetatarsal angle) were acquired and used for ML model training. A total of 9 commonly used ML models were trained on the data obtained from one institute (108 feet), and tested on the other data set from another independent institute (90 feet) for external validation. Optimal feature sets for each model were identified based on a 2000-resample bootstrap-based internal validation via an exhaustive search. The performance of each model was then tested on the external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of each model were calculated to evaluate the performance of each model. Results: The support vector machine (SVM) model showed the highest predictive accuracy compared to other methods, with an AUC of 0.88 and an accuracy of 75.6%. Preoperative hallux valgus angle, tibial sesamoid position, postoperative intermetatarsal angle, and postoperative tibial sesamoid position were identified as the most selected features by several ML models. Conclusion: ML classifiers such as SVM could predict the recurrence of HV (an HVA >20 degrees) at a 1-year follow-up while identifying associated predictors in a multivariate manner. This study holds the potential for foot and ankle surgeons to effectively identify individuals at higher risk of HV recurrence postsurgery.