Developing population models: A systematic approach for pesticide risk assessment using herbaceous plants as an example

Schmolke, Amélie; Kapo, Katherine E.; Rueda‐Cediel, Pamela; Thorbek, Pernille; Brain, Richard A.; Forbes, Valery E.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.116

Cited by 19 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Accordingly, plants are not affected by intraspecific competition (Bowles et al ; Slade et al ; Grman and Alexander ). In Schmolke et al (, appendix B), detailed information about the species as available from the literature is tabulated.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the example of Mead's milkweed ( Asclepias meadii ), we developed a conceptual model to demonstrate a systematic approach to population model development in pesticide risk assessment (Schmolke et al , online appendix B). Asclepias meadii is a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act throughout its range (Harrison ) and provides an example of a long‐lived and slow‐reproducing herbaceous plant species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead's milkweed

Schmolke

Roy

Brain

et al. 2018

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

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Population models can facilitate assessment of potential impacts of pesticides on populations or species rather than individuals and have been identified as important tools for pesticide risk assessment of nontarget species including those listed under the Endangered Species Act. Few examples of population models developed for this specific purpose are available; however, population models are commonly used in conservation science as a tool to project the viability of populations and the long-term outcomes of management actions. We present a population model for Mead's milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act throughout its range across the Midwestern United States. We adapted a published population model based on demographic field data for application in pesticide risk assessment. Exposure and effects were modeled as reductions of sets of vital rates in the transition matrices, simulating both lethal and sublethal effects of herbicides. Two herbicides, atrazine and mesotrione, were used as case study examples to evaluate a range of assumptions about potential exposure-effects relationships. In addition, we assessed buffers (i.e., setback distances of herbicide spray applications from the simulated habitat) as hypothetical mitigation scenarios and evaluated their influence on population-level effects in the model. The model results suggest that buffers can be effective at reducing risk from herbicide drift to plant populations. These case studies demonstrate that existing population models can be adopted and integrated with exposure and effects information for use in pesticide risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:2235-2245. © 2018 SETAC.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead's milkweed

Schmolke

Roy

Brain

et al. 2018

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

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“…A growing toolbox of models appropriate for use in the ERA of regulated stressors is available, together with case studies demonstrating their usefulness, not only in assessing risks, but also in informing management options, assessing recovery of impacted populations and exploring potential future scenarios under changing environmental conditions (Galic et al., ; Hommen et al., ; Forbes et al., ). Nevertheless, greater implementation of mechanistic effects models to link effects endpoints in ERAs to ES delivery would be facilitated by a more systematic approach to model development (Schmolke et al., ). This would not only improve the efficiency of the model development process, but would increase the consistency, transparency, and hence acceptance, of the generated models.…”

Section: Challenges For Es‐based Erasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying ecosystem services for pre‐market environmental risk assessments of regulated stressors

Devos

Munns

Forbes

et al. 2019

EFS2

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Ecosystem services (ES) are the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems. Investigating the environment through an ES framework has gained wide acceptance in the international scientific community and is applied by policymakers to protect biodiversity and safeguard the sustainability of ecosystems. This approach can enhance the ecological and societal relevance of pre-market/ prospective environmental risk assessments (ERAs) of regulated stressors by: (1) informing the derivation of operational protection goals; (2) enabling the integration of environmental and human health risk assessments; (3) facilitating horizontal integration of policies and regulations; (4) leading to more comprehensive and consistent environmental protection; (5) articulating the utility of, and tradeoffs involved in, environmental decisions; and (6) enhancing the transparency of risk assessment results and the decisions based upon them. Realisation of these advantages will require challenges that impede acceptance of an ES approach to be overcome. Particularly, there is concern that, if biodiversity only matters to the extent that it benefits humans, the intrinsic value of nature is ignored. Moreover, our understanding of linkages among ecological components and the processes that ultimately deliver ES is incomplete, valuing ES is complex, and there is no standard ES lexicon and limited familiarity with the approach. To help overcome these challenges, we encourage: (1) further research to establish biodiversity-ES relationships; (2) the development of approaches that (i) quantitatively translate responses to chemical stressors by organisms and groups of organisms to ES delivery across different spatial and temporal scales, (ii) measure cultural ES and ease their integration into ES valuations, and (iii) appropriately value changes in ES delivery so that trade-offs among different management options can be assessed; (3) the establishment of a standard ES lexicon; and (4) building capacity in ES science and how to apply ES to ERAs. These development needs should not prevent movement towards implementation of an ES approach in ERAs, as the advantages we perceive of using this approach render it more than worthwhile to tackle those challenges. Society and the environment stand to benefit from this shift in how we conduct the ERA of regulated stressors.

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“…The decision guide of Schmolke et al () comprises 4 primary phases: 1) definition of model objectives, 2) compilation of available data, 3) decision steps, and 4) development of a representative model to address the model objectives. Here, we focus on the decision steps specifically for amphibians, identifying ways in which this information might guide adaptations to a minimum anuran conceptual model (Awkerman and Raimondo ) (Figure ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite available guidance on development of population models for ERA (Pastorok et al 2002;Munns and Mitro 2006;Barnthouse et al 2008;Schmolke et al 2010;Forbes et al 2016), they are still not being used regularly in decision making. Recent studies on the application of population models in ERA present more systematic processes to develop and implement models (Schmolke et al 2017;Raimondo et al 2018). Raimondo et al (2018) presented a framework in which a range of model realism and precision associated with an assessment is used to guide the investment level commensurate with needs of the protection goal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidance for Developing Amphibian Population Models for Ecological Risk Assessment

Awkerman

Raimondo

Schmolke

et al. 2019

Integr Envir Assess & Manag

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Despite widespread acceptance of the utility of population modeling and advocacy of this approach for a more ecologically relevant perspective, it is not routinely incorporated in ecological risk assessments (ERA). A systematic framework for situation‐specific model development is one of the major challenges to broadly adopting population models in ERA. As risk assessors confront the multitude of species and chemicals requiring evaluation, an adaptable stepwise guide for model parameterization would facilitate this process. Additional guidance on interpretation of model output and evaluating uncertainty would further contribute to establishing consensus on good modeling practices. We build on previous work that created a framework and decision guide for developing population models for ERA by focusing on data types, model structure, and extrinsic stressors relevant to anuran amphibians. Anurans have a unique life cycle with varying habitat requirements and high phenotypic plasticity. These species belong to the amphibian class, which is facing global population decline in large part due to anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals. We synthesize information from databases and literature relevant to amphibian risks to identify traits that influence exposure likelihood, inherent sensitivity, population vulnerability, and environmental constraints. We link these concerns with relevant population modeling methods and structure in order to evaluate pesticide effects with appropriate scale and parameterization. A standardized population modeling approach, with additional guidance for anuran ERA, offers an example method for quantifying population risks and evaluating long‐term impacts of chemical stressors to populations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:223–233. © 2019 SETAC

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Developing population models: A systematic approach for pesticide risk assessment using herbaceous plants as an example

Cited by 19 publications

References 33 publications

Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead's milkweed

Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead's milkweed

Applying ecosystem services for pre‐market environmental risk assessments of regulated stressors

Guidance for Developing Amphibian Population Models for Ecological Risk Assessment

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