Developing Predictive Models to Anticipate Shunt Complications in 33,248 Pediatric Patients with Shunted Hydrocephalus Utilizing Machine Learning

Abstract

Introduction Hydrocephalus is a common pediatric neurosurgical pathology typically treated with a ventricular shunt, yet approximately 30% of patients experience shunt failure within the first year after surgery. As a result, the objective of the present study to validate a predictive model of pediatric shunt complications with data retrieved from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) National Readmissions Database (NRD). Methods The HCUP NRD was queried from 2016 to 2017 for pediatric patients undergoing shunt placement using ICD-10 codes. Comorbidities present upon initial admission resulting in shunt placement, Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (JHACG) frailty-defining criteria, and Major Diagnostic Category (MDC) at admission classifications were obtained. The database was divided into training (n=19,948), validation (n=6,650), and testing (n=6,650) datasets. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify significant predictors of shunt complications which were used to develop logistic regression models. Post-hoc receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were created. Results A total of 33,248 pediatric patients aged 6.9±5.7 years were included. Number of diagnoses during primary admission (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07) and initial neurological admission diagnoses (OR: 3.83, 95% CI: 3.33-4.42) positively correlated with shunt complications. Female sex (OR: 0.87, 95%CI: 0.76-0.99) and elective admissions (OR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.53-0.72) negatively correlated with shunt complications. ROC curve for the regression model utilizing all significant predictors of readmission demonstrated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.733, suggesting these factors are possible predictors of shunt complications in pediatric hydrocephalus. Conclusion Efficacious and safe treatment of pediatric hydrocephalus is of paramount importance. Our machine learning algorithm delineated possible variables predictive of shunt complications with good predictive value.