Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight

Abstract

Purpose -The objective of this paper is to contribute to improved practice and impact of foresight through the development and testing of a Foresight Impact Evaluation Schema. The schema is designed to guide foresight practitioners in the more effective design and conduct of foresight exercises to optimise impact.Design/methodology/approach -The development of the schema is based on the significant previous work in this field, and the author's experience of designing and managing more than 100 foresight projects. It also takes into account accumulated experience with heuristics developed to guide foresight design and management, and with various approaches to evaluating the impact of social science knowledge on policy-and decision-making.Findings -A range of impacts identified from major foresight projects have been characterised according to four categories of impact -awareness raising, informing policy, enabling greater capacity to address uncertainty, and influencing policy, strategy, investment, program delivery and public attitudes.Research limitations/implications -The schema needs to be tested against a variety of foresight projects to further refine its usefulness.Practical implications -With the rapid growth of the application of foresight, it has become essential to guide practitioners in the appropriate design and management of all the processes associated with foresight to achieve maximum impact, and to demonstrate the value of the investment in foresight to consequent policy and planning.Originality/value -This paper builds on earlier and contemporary work to develop a more refined and applicable schema to guide foresight impact evaluation.

Evaluation of technology foresight projects

“…For example, some considered impact as one of the considered aspects, like those developed by K. A. Piirainen et al [42], E. A. Makarova, A. V. Sokolova [16], S. S., Li et al [20], and P. Destatte [22]. Some developed frameworks devoted exclusively to foresight impact evaluation (R. Johnston [43], and by R. Johnston and J. Smith [36]). As shown in the literature review presented in this paper, the scientific work on foresight evaluation models is still in progress.…”

“…The authors of the paper quote the classification developed by A. Havas, D. Schartinger and M. Weber [46] (Table 2), in which different planned and unintended impacts are gathered depending on the foresight functions in relation to policy-making processes as one of the most important aspects of foresight projects and the time lag at which an impact occurs. These types of impacts were taken into account while building the Foresight Impact Schema by R. Johnston [43]. It has been developed with the objective to guide practitioners in the appropriate design and execution of foresight projects, which would maximise the impact of such undertakings.…”

“…major, moderate, and minor) reported; & The number and scale of follow-on and spin-off foresight projects; & National comparative performance in high value added goods and services; & The contribution of research to major national and international issues; and, & Public confidence in research [43].…”

“…Such trials have been undertaken by researchers and comprise, among others, a foresight evaluation framework by P. Destatte [22], a framework of the foresight evaluation process by E. A. Makarova, A. V. Sokolova [16], an evaluation framework by S. S., Li M. H. Kang, L. C. Lee [20], an input-output-impact schema of foresight by K. A. Piirainen, R. A. Gonzales, J. Bragge [42], a Foresight Impact Schema by R. Johnston [43], an instrument for measuring the impact of foresight by R. Johnston and J. Smith [36].…”

Interactive foresight simulation

“…Within a company context, combined simulation approaches like CSA can be used to intensify the raising of awareness about possible challenges in the future ("awareness raising"), for capacity building of cooperation between decision makers, participatory stakeholders and facilitators of the process, as well as for policy building and decision making based on the simulations [1,[70][71]. These general purposes outlined in the literature will be reflected on in relation to the case study described above.…”