Developing the model of reliability of a complex technical system of repeated use with a complex operating mode

Khudov

et al. 2021

Self Cite

The operation of a radio-technical complex based on a technical condition is represented by cycles. Each cycle implies control over a limiting state in order to make timely and informed decisions on managing the operation of a radio-technical complex. That should resolve the task of assessing and monitoring the indicators of fault-free operation with the required accuracy and reliability based on operational observations and, if necessary, special tests that could minimize the cost of special tests. Given the introduction for a radio-technical complex of the repeated application of a new indicator of fault-free operation «the probability of trouble-free switching», a combined method of its evaluation and control has been developed. This method is a set of known and developed criteria, models, methods, and schemes that determines the sequence of their application for joint evaluation and control of this indicator. The criteria for verifying the uniformity of data on the operational observations and special tests for the fault-free operation of a radio-technical complex have been defined, as well as the corresponding models for assessing the one-sided lower confidence boundaries of the indicator under consideration, and the methods to control it. The devised method makes it possible to derive estimates of the probability of trouble-free switching, as well as the magnitudes of the observed risks of decisions being made with acceptable accuracy and reliability. The results of modeling the devised combined method helped obtain the accuracy and reliability of its estimates and the observed risks of controls carried out. Recommendations have been compiled for applying the method to address the challenges of joint assessment and control of the probability of trouble-free switching of the considered complexes

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of the combined method for evaluating and controlling the reliability indicator «probability of failure-free switching» of a radio technical complex

Khudov

et al. 2021

Self Cite

“…Analysis important for making timely decisions on repair or decommissioning. At the same time, the REC is considered as an object of repeated use with a complex mode of operation characterized by indices of reliability "mean time between failures" (MTBF) and "probability of failure-free switching" (PFFS) [1,2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the REC belongs to restorable and repairable objects and, accordingly, it must be characterized by residual life indices "average residual life". The REC is operated in cycles which requires a solution to the problem of estimating the reliability indices (RI) with the required accuracy and reliability and their results are used to control the operation [1,2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an experimental-estimation method for estimating indices of residual life of a radio technical complex

Khudov

et al. 2021

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To implement the operation of a radio technical complex according to its technical condition, it is necessary to jointly evaluate its reliability and residual life indices with required accuracy and reliability and minimization of the scope of special tests. The known methods are focused on separate solutions to the problems of estimating these indices as applied to the regulated strategy. To solve this problem, general provisions have been developed for estimating the indices of residual life of the radio technical complex including the accepted assumptions and limitations for developing the method, the estimated indices, and criteria of limiting state. The developed experiment-calculated method is a set of mathematical models of change of the reliability indices of a radio technical complex depending on calendar duration of operation or total operating time and analytical models of estimating the indices of its residual life. The mathematical models of change of mean time between failures, the probability of failure-free switching, and the parameter of the flow of failures of the radio technical complex depending on calendar duration of operation or the total operating time were presented in a form of regressive dependences. Analytical models of estimating the residual life indices are ratios for calculating the "average residual service life (resource)" according to the technical and economic criterion using regression-time dependences of the reliability indices. The developed experiment-calculated method can be used to estimate the indices of residual life of the radio technical complex with acceptable accuracy (no more than 2 quarters) and reliability (no worse than 0.8). In this case, the duration of the intervals of predicting the reliability indices should be 0.5 to 1 year and the corresponding observation intervals should be more than 1 year

Development of an estimation-experimental method for estimating the preservation indicators of single-use articles

Koval

et al. 2021

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To manage the operation of modern single-use products, it is necessary to evaluate their preservation indicators as uncontrolled, non-repairable, and maintenance-free objects. Data for assessing its parameters are considered as one-time censored samples with continuous monitoring, which does not correspond to the mode of storage of products during operation. Under the conditions of limited volumes of censored samples, it is problematic to identify the parametric model of persistence. To solve this problem, a non-parametric estimation-experimental method has been devised, which is a set of models for data generation, estimation of the function of the distribution of the preservation period and preservation indicators. The data generation model is represented by a scheme of operational tests and analytical relationships between the quantities of tested and failed articles. The model of estimating the distribution function describes the process of its construction on the generated data. Models for estimating preservation indicators are represented by ratios for their point and interval estimates, as functionals from the restored distribution function. Unlike the well-known ones, the developed method implements the assessment of indicators under the conditions of combined censorship. The method can be used to assess the preservation indicators of single-use articles with an error of at least 7 %. At the same time, their lower confidence limits are estimated at 0.9 with an error not worse than 14 % with a censorship degree of not more than 0.23. The restored distribution function agrees well (reliability 0.9, error 0.1) with the actual persistence of articles with censorship degrees of not more than 0.73, which is acceptable for solving the problems of managing their operation.