Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK

Abstract

This paper describes the approach to developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK, being pursued in a major new interdisciplinary research project. The project aims (a) to learn from past transitions to help explore future transitions and what might enable or avoid them; (b) to design and evaluate transition pathways towards alternative sociotechnical energy systems and infrastructures for a low carbon future; and (c) to understand and, where appropriate, model the changing roles, influences and opportunities of large and small 'actors' in the dynamics of transitions. The paper describes the approach, which builds on the work of Dutch researchers on transitions and transition management using a multilevel framework of niches, sociotechnical regime and landscape, as well as on other parts of the innovation systems literature. It also describes its application to several outline transition pathways to a low carbon energy system in the UK. The pathways embrace both the evolution of the physical and institutional infrastructure changes and the roles of both large actors, e.g. multinational energy supply and distribution companies, national governments, major investors, and small actors, e.g. households, innovators and entrepreneurs.

Participation in Transition(s): Reconceiving Public Engagements in Energy Transitions as Co-Produced, Emergent and Diverse

“…It is in such contexts that the sustainability transitions field has emerged in order to understand, anticipate, and intervene to potentially 'steer' system change in energy and other socio-technical domains (Foxon, 2013;Geels & Schot, 2007;Hoogma, Kemp, Schot, & Truffer, 2002;Rotmans and Loorbach, 2010). Whilst the field has made considerable strides in developing approaches that provide insights into system dynamics, emerging critiques have centred on the limited attention to the role of power and politics in transition processes (Shove & Walker, 2007;Smith & Stirling, 2007).…”

The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios

“…A number of energy scenarios that envision the UK's energy infrastructure in 2050 have been published, all of which could potentially meet the UK's commitment to an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions. Evident in the majority of these scenarios and in the wider political debate, is a growing consensus that electricity will play a central role in the UK energy system of the future [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Common themes are an increasing proportion of electric vehicles and the replacement of gas driven technologies for heat pumps to provide space heating in buildings, both of which can be decarbonised by deploying other technologies such as solar PV, wind farms and carbon capture and storage (CCS).…”

Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

“…Developing a national pathway to achieve such system change, by exploring different potential future energy scenarios, is therefore important in determining energy policy. This is an inherently complex task and the focus of much academic and political scrutiny (for example, refs [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Most such national energy scenarios and policies derive from technical and economic assessments and evaluations, but struggle to consider other types of relevant societal values and interests [9][10][11][12][13] .…”