Developing user-informed fire weather projections for Canada

Van Vliet, Laura; Fyke, Jeremy; Nakoneczny, Sonya; Murdock, Trevor Q.; Jafarpur, Pouriya

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100505

Climate Services

2024

DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100505

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Developing user-informed fire weather projections for Canada

Laura Van Vliet,

Jeremy Fyke,

Sonya Nakoneczny

et al.

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

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Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada

Curasi,

Melton,

Arora

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned—over seven times the 1986–2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation’s climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090 s reaches 10.2 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2 °C global target (SSP126), keeps the 2090 s area burned near modern (2004–2014) norms. The simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.

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Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada

Curasi,

Melton,

Arora

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada

Kirchmeier-Young,

Malinina,

Barber

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas across Canada experiencing synchronous extreme fire weather were also much more likely due to human influence on the climate. Simulated emissions from the 2023 wildfire season were eight times their 1985-2022 mean. With continued warming, the likelihood of extreme fire seasons is projected to increase further in the future, driving additional impacts on health, society, and ecosystems.

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Developing user-informed fire weather projections for Canada

Cited by 2 publications

References 59 publications

Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada

Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada

Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada

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