Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury

Blot, Stijn

doi:10.1002/bjs.6329

Cited by 152 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The high mortality rate observed in the present study can probably be explained by the large number of inhalation injuries, advanced age and larger TBSA burned in nonsurvivors [40]. The comparison between survivors and nonsurvivors shows some remarkable findings.…”

Section: Outcomesupporting

confidence: 42%

Incidence and prognosis of intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in severely burned patients: Pilot study and review of the literature

Wise

Jacobs²,

Pilate³

et al. 2016

Anaesthesiol Intensive Ther

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Background: Burn patients are at high risk for secondary intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) and abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) due to capillary leak and large volume fluid resuscitation. Our objective was to examine the incidence the incidence of IAH and ACS and their relation to outcome in mechanically ventilated (MV) burn patients. Methods: This observational study included all MV burn patients admitted between April 2007 and December 2009. Various physiological parameters, intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) measurements and severity scoring indices were recorded on admission and/or each day in ICU. Transpulmonary thermodilution parameters were also obtained in 23 patients. The mean and maximum IAP during admission was calculated. The primary endpoint was ICU (burn unit) mortality. Results: Fifty-six patients were included. The average Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were 43.4 ± 15.1 and 6.4 ± 3.4, respectively. The average total body surface area (TBSA) affected by burns was 24.9% ( ± 24.9), with 33 patients suffering inhalational injuries. Forty-four (78.6%) patients developed IAH and 16 (28.6%) suffered ACS. Patients with ACS had higher TBSAs burned (35.8 ± 30 vs 20.6 ± 21.4%, P = 0.04) and higher cumulative fluid balances after 48 hours (13.6 ± 16L vs 7.6 ± 4.1L, P = 0.03). The TBSA burned correlated well with the mean IAP (R = 0.34, P = 0.01). Mortality was notably high (26.8%) and significantly higher in patients with IAH (34.1%, P = 0.014) and ACS (62.5%, P < 0.0001). Most patients received more fluids than calculated by the Parkland Consensus Formula while, interestingly, non-survivors received less. However, when patients with pure inhalation injury were excluded there were no differences. Non-surgical interventions (n = 24) were successful in removing body fluids and were related to a significant decrease in IAP, central venous pressure (CVP) and an improvement in oxygenation and urine output. Non-resolution of IAH was associated with a significantly worse outcome (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: Based on our preliminary results we conclude that IAH and ACS have a relatively high incidence in MV burn patients compared to other groups of critically ill patients. The percentage of TBSA burned correlates with the mean IAP. The combination of high CLI, positive (daily and cumulative) fluid balance, high IAP, high EVLWI and low APP suggest a poor outcome. Non-surgical interventions appear to improve end-organ function. Non-resolution of IAH is related to a worse outcome.

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Section: Outcomesupporting

confidence: 42%

Incidence and prognosis of intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in severely burned patients: Pilot study and review of the literature

Wise

Jacobs²,

Pilate³

et al. 2016

Anaesthesiol Intensive Ther

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“…Burn clinical assessment scores are based on three principle risk factors: TBSA, presence of inhalation injury and increasing age [27, 28]. MV levels correlated poorly with TBSA, although all non-surviving patients had full thickness burns compared to 6 out of 10 survivors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circulating Microvesicles Are Elevated Acutely following Major Burns Injury and Associated with Clinical Severity

et al. 2016

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Microvesicles are cell-derived signaling particles emerging as important mediators and biomarkers of systemic inflammation, but their production in severe burn injury patients has not been described. In this pilot investigation, we measured circulating microvesicle levels following severe burns, with severe sepsis patients as a comparator group. We hypothesized that levels of circulating vascular cell-derived microvesicles are elevated acutely following burns injury, mirroring clinical severity due to the early onset and prevalence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in these patients. Blood samples were obtained from patients with moderate to severe thermal injury burns, with severe sepsis, and from healthy volunteers. Circulating microvesicles derived from total leukocytes, granulocytes, monocytes, and endothelial cells were quantified in plasma by flow cytometry. All circulating microvesicle subpopulations were elevated in burns patients on day of admission (day 0) compared to healthy volunteers (leukocyte-microvesicles: 3.5-fold, p = 0.005; granulocyte-microvesicles: 12.8-fold, p<0.0001; monocyte-microvesicles: 20.4-fold, p<0.0001; endothelial- microvesicles: 9.6-fold, p = 0.01), but decreased significantly by day 2. Microvesicle levels were increased with severe sepsis, but less consistently between patients. Leukocyte- and granulocyte-derived microvesicles on day 0 correlated with clinical assessment scores and were higher in burns ICU non-survivors compared to survivors (leukocyte MVs 4.6 fold, p = 0.002; granulocyte MVs 4.8 fold, p = 0.003). Mortality prediction analysis of area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.92 (p = 0.01) for total leukocyte microvesicles and 0.85 (p = 0.04) for granulocyte microvesicles. These findings demonstrate, for the first time, acute increases in circulating microvesicles following burns injury in patients and point to their potential role in propagation of sterile SIRS-related pathophysiology.

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“…[14]Since 2007, other prediction models that have been utilized are the Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury (BOBI) model and revised Baux score to predict burn outcomes. However, these latest models do not take into account the effects preexisting medical conditions[15,16]and may result in overestimation or underestimation of burn severity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The measured effect magnitude of co-morbidities on burn injury mortality

Knowlin

Stanford

Moore

et al. 2016

Burns

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Introduction The ability to better prognosticate burn injury outcome is challenging and historically, most center use the Baux or revised Baux score to help prognosticate burn outcome, however, the weighted contribution of comorbidity on burn mortality has traditionally not been accounted for nor adequately studied. We therefore sought to determine the effect of comorbidities, using the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) on burn mortality. Methods The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of comorbidities on burn injury mortality as determined by the LA50 (lethal TBSA burn at which 50% of the cohort will succumb from the burn injury) in a retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002–2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA (total body surface area), length of hospital stay, and pre-existing comorbidities. Bivariate analysis was performed and logistic regression modeling using significant variables was utilized to estimate odds of death. Results 7640 patients were included in this study. Overall survival rate was 96%. 40% of our burn cohort had at least one comorbidity. There was a linear increase in the likelihood of death with an increase in CCI. The logistic regression model for mortality outcomes identified four statistically significant variables: age, TBSA, inhalational injury and the presence of comorbidities (OR = 1.59 for each 1 point increase in CCI; 95% CI 1.44–1.77). The unadjusted LA50 was 53% for the entire cohort. Partial adjustment multivariate regression controlling for burn mechanism and inhalation injury only, produced a slight reduction in LA50 for the 0–18 and 19–64 age categories to 76% and 48%, respectively, but a significant decrease occurred in the ≥ 65 years age group with a reduced LA50 to 20% (p<0.001). After full adjustment for all significant covariates, including comorbidities, the independent magnitude of effect of comorbidities on the LA50 was evident in the <65 cohort. The full adjustment showed a LA50 decreased by 15 and 5%, respectively in the 0–18 and >18–65 age groups respectively (p<0.001), however, in the >65 years age cohort there was no change in the LA50. Conclusion Preexisting comorbidities have a significant effect on burn injury mortality in all age groups, particularly the younger burn population. The measured effect of comorbidities in the >65yr age cohort was mitigated by the co-linearity between age and comorbidities. The inclusion of CCI is imperative so as to better prognosticate burn outcome and help guide expectations and resource utilization, particularly in the younger burn cohort..

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Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury

Abstract: An accurate model was developed to predict the probability of death from acute burn injury based on simple and objective clinical criteria.

Cited by 152 publications

References 19 publications

Incidence and prognosis of intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in severely burned patients: Pilot study and review of the literature

Incidence and prognosis of intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in severely burned patients: Pilot study and review of the literature

Circulating Microvesicles Are Elevated Acutely following Major Burns Injury and Associated with Clinical Severity

The measured effect magnitude of co-morbidities on burn injury mortality

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