2020
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237639
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Development and validation of delirium prediction model for critically ill adults parameterized to ICU admission acuity

Abstract: Background Risk prediction models allow clinicians to forecast which individuals are at a higher risk for developing a particular outcome. We developed and internally validated a delirium prediction model for incident delirium parameterized to patient ICU admission acuity. Methods This retrospective, observational, fourteen medical-surgical ICU cohort study evaluated consecutive delirium-free adults surviving hospital stay with ICU length of stay (LOS) greater than or equal to 24 hours with both an admission A… Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(5 citation statements)
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References 58 publications
(83 reference statements)
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“…AUROC-val-ues were below the originally reported values of 0.75 (E-PRE-DELIRIC and CAM-ICU) and 0.77 (PRE-DELIRIC and CAM-ICU) [44,45], which underline the importance of an external validation to achieve more generalizable models. Cherak et al [46 ▪ ] developed and internally validated a model to predict ICU delirium based on the ten risk factors age, sex, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, vasoactive medication, preexisting neuropsychiatric disorder, continuous renal replacement therapy and invasive mechanical ventilation (Table 2). They reported an AUROC of 0.76 with a sensitivity and specificity of 62.1% and 74.2%, respectively.…”
Section: Models To Predict Deliriummentioning
confidence: 99%
“…AUROC-val-ues were below the originally reported values of 0.75 (E-PRE-DELIRIC and CAM-ICU) and 0.77 (PRE-DELIRIC and CAM-ICU) [44,45], which underline the importance of an external validation to achieve more generalizable models. Cherak et al [46 ▪ ] developed and internally validated a model to predict ICU delirium based on the ten risk factors age, sex, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, vasoactive medication, preexisting neuropsychiatric disorder, continuous renal replacement therapy and invasive mechanical ventilation (Table 2). They reported an AUROC of 0.76 with a sensitivity and specificity of 62.1% and 74.2%, respectively.…”
Section: Models To Predict Deliriummentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the past, more emphasis has been placed on developing predictive models with clinical implications that remain unclear. A number of prediction models have been developed but primarily to predict delirium risk (not POD risk) [ 17 ] or for ICU patients [ 15 , 18 , 20 , 46 ]. A simple translation to surgical patients is problematic, as the needs of surgical patients are not addressed.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The oldest prediction model for delirium, developed in the 1990s, included the evaluation of vision and cognitive impairment, severe illness and high urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio [ 17 ]. Prediction models for ICU delirium include—besides age parameters, which are primarily related to intensive care treatment, such as for coma—use of sedatives and morphine [ 46 ], respiratory failure [ 20 ], vasoactive medication use and requirement of continuous renal replacement therapy and mechanical ventilation [ 15 ]. Some of them were developed through retrospective analysis [ 15 , 18 ].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…It is difficult to diagnose and often untreated. In the most frequent mixed type, the phases alternate with varied intensity and duration (Cherak et al, 2020). Nurses are most familiar with the hyperactive form, they often tend to overlook hypo-KoNtAKt / Journal of nursing and social sciences related to health and illness N U r S I N g active delirium in patients (Helgesen et al, 2021).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%