Development and validation of machine learning models and nomograms for predicting the surgical difficulty of laparoscopic resection in rectal cancer

Abstract

Background The objective of this study is to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) prediction model for the assessment of laparoscopic total mesorectal excision (LaTME) surgery difficulty, as well as to identify independent risk factors that influence surgical difficulty. Establishing a nomogram aims to assist clinical practitioners in formulating more effective surgical plans before the procedure. Methods This study included 186 patients with rectal cancer who underwent LaTME from January 2018 to December 2020. They were divided into a training cohort (n = 131) versus a validation cohort (n = 55). The difficulty of LaTME was defined based on Escal’s et al. scoring criteria with modifications. We utilized Lasso regression to screen the preoperative clinical characteristic variables and intraoperative information most relevant to surgical difficulty for the development and validation of four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and decision tree (DT). The performance of the model was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Logistic regression-based column-line plots were created to visualize the predictive model. Consistency statistics (C-statistic) and calibration curves were used to discriminate and calibrate the nomogram, respectively. Results In the validation cohort, all four ML models demonstrate good performance: SVM AUC = 0.987, RF AUC = 0.953, LR AUC = 0.950, and DT AUC = 0.904. To enhance visual evaluation, a logistic regression-based nomogram has been established. Predictive factors included in the nomogram are body mass index (BMI), distance between the tumor to the dentate line ≤ 10 cm, radiodensity of visceral adipose tissue (VAT), area of subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), tumor diameter >3 cm, and comorbid hypertension. Conclusion In this study, four ML models based on intraoperative and preoperative risk factors and a nomogram based on logistic regression may be of help to surgeons in evaluating the surgical difficulty before operation and adopting appropriate responses and surgical protocols.