Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program

Abstract

Background: Bladder cancer is often prone to recurrence and metastasis. We sought to construct nomogram models to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of bladder cancer patients. Methods: A reliable random split-sample approach was used to divide patients into two groups: modeling and validation cohorts. Uni-variate and multivariate survival analyses were used to obtain the independent prognostic risk factors based on the modeling cohort. A nomogram was constructed using the R package, “rms”. Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to evaluate the discrimination, sensitivity and specificity of the nomograms using the R packages “hmisc”, “rms” and “timeROC”. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical value of the nomograms via R package “stdca.R”. Results: 10,478 and 10,379 patients were assigned into nomogram modeling and validation cohorts, respectively (split ratio ≈ 1:1). For OS and CSS, the C-index values for internal validation were 0.738 and 0.780, respectively, and the C-index values for external validation were 0.739 and 0.784, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for 5- and 8-year OS and CSS were all greater than 0.7. The calibration curves show that the predicted probability values of 5- and 8-year OS and CSS are close to the actual OS and CSS. The decision curve analysis revealed that the two nomograms have a positive clinical benefit. Conclusion: We successfully constructed two nomograms to forecast OS and CSS for bladder cancer patients. This information can help clinicians conduct prognostic evaluations in an individualized manner and tailor personalized treatment plans.

Identification of disulfidptosis-related clusters and construction of a disulfidptosis-related gene prognostic signature in triple-negative breast cancer

“…According to the median value of nomogram score, the TNBC patients were classified into high- or low-score groups and their OS differences were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier curves. Meanwhile, the performance of this nomogram in predicting OS probabilities was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves that was plotted using timeROC (version 0.4) [ 27 ].…”

Establishment and validation of nomograms to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival for non-metastatic bladder cancer patients: A large population-based cohort study and external validation

“…[ 13 ] Nomogram is extensively applied in developing treatment plans and predicting survival for tumor patients. [ 14 – 16 ] To the extent of our knowledge, no nomogram has been established to predict the clinical outcome of non-metastatic BC patients. Based on the clinical pathological parameters collected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we constructed nomograms to evaluate the prognosis of non-metastatic BC patients, which can offer assistance for urologists to tailor treatment plan for every patient.…”