Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields

Höök, Mikael; Tang, Xu; Pang, Xiongqi; Aleklett, K.

doi:10.1016/s1876-3804(10)60030-4

Cited by 51 publications

(25 citation statements)

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“…However, the strong correlation between the concepts makes it possible to use depletion rates to estimate future average decline rates reasonably well. This has already been used to forecast future production profiles for fields that have yet to reach the onset of decline [45]. When combined with reliable URR estimates, depletion rate analysis offers a simple tool for making educated estimates of future production decline rates.…”

Section: (D) Depletion Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates . These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

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Section: (D) Depletion Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…In contrast, the Maui oilfield declined at 17% and was depleted at around 20%. It appears that depletion rates could indeed be a vital pointer to the future average decline rate and this has already been used to forecast production for fields that have not reached the onset of decline yet [37].…”

Section: Depletion Rate Behaviour In Oilfieldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Höök

2014

Fuel

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PostprintThis is the accepted version of a paper published in Fuel. This paper has been peer-reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.Citation for the original published paper (version of record):Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: a methodological foundation. Fuel Abstract:This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution.Depletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2-3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier "peak oil" forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground.

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“…In 2012, Heilongjiang's nominal GDP was 1.37 trillion RMB. Since 1999, Daqing oil fields have been depleted and oil production dropped significantly (Hu et al, 2011;Höök et al, 2010).…”

Section: Heilongjiangmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measurement of production efficiency and environmental efficiency in China’s province-level: a by-production approach

Zhao

2016

Environ Econ Policy Stud

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This thesis employs the by-production approach to modelling pollution generating technologies to investigate production and environmental efficiencies, design consumptionincreasing and emission non-increasing input policy reforms, and derive a measure of marginal abatement costs in the case of China.The second chapter introduces by-production approach to modelling the pollution generating technologies. It decomposes a general pollution generating technology as classical intended production technology and nature's residual-generation mechanism. In this chapter, some production and environmental efficiency indexes will be extended and applied under by-production approach to study China's regional technical efficiency incorporated emission generation. According to our estimation results, some reasons analysis and policy implementation suggestions are given.The third chapter co-authored with Professor Sushama Murty proposes a model that gives a key role to the energy sector, and gives a theoretical characterisation for the existence of feasible, consumption-increasing, and emission-non increasing input policy reforms at the status-quo of a national or a sub-national economic unit. A methodology is developed to empirically test for the existence of such efficiency-improving reforms.Formulae to compute the optimal efficiency-increasing reform and a measure of marginal abatement cost (MAC) based on local policy reforms using data available at the status-quo are derived.The fourth chapter co-authored with Professor Sushama Murty implements the methodology developed in the third chapter to test the existence and to study the structure of efficiency-improving reforms using data on thirty provinces in China. A new class of limitational variable elasticity of substitution (LVES) production functions for specifying technologies of the energy-using and energy-generating sectors is introduced and two such production functions are estimated along with the conventional Cobb Douglas and 3 CES production functions. MACs and the optimal efficiency-improving reforms are found to be sensitive to the choice of the production functions employed. There is a huge variation in MACs across provinces. The optimal efficiency-improving reform encourages a substitution from coal-fired electricity generation to gas-fired electricity and renewable energy generation for all provinces.The fifth chapter reviews China's regional variations in electricity generation, primary energy usage, and forest cover. To better understand the China's carbon emission control policies, we also briefly introduce the carbon emission scheme implementation. Based on these information, we incorporate the efficiency-improving reforms and MACs estimated in the fourth chapter to analyse the direction of input resources reallocation and give further recommendations for each province.4

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Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields

Cited by 51 publications

References 51 publications

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation

Measurement of production efficiency and environmental efficiency in China’s province-level: a by-production approach

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