Development of a day-ahead solar power forecasting model chain for a 250 MW PV park in India

Abstract

Due to the steep rise in grid-connected solar Photovoltaic (PV) capacity and the intermittent nature of solar generation, accurate forecasts are becoming ever more essential for the secure and economic day-ahead scheduling of PV systems. The inherent uncertainty in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and the limited availability of measured datasets for PV system modeling impacts the achievable day-ahead solar PV power forecast accuracy in regions like India. In this study, an operational day-ahead PV power forecast model chain is developed for a 250 MWp solar PV park located in Southern India using NWP-predicted Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) from the European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) models. The performance of the Lorenz polynomial and a Neural Network (NN)-based bias correction method are benchmarked on a sliding window basis against ground-measured GHI for ten months. The usefulness of GHI transposition, even with uncertain monthly tilt values, is analyzed by comparing the Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) and GHI forecasts with measured GTI for four months. A simple technique for back-calculating the virtual DC power is developed using the available aggregated AC power measurements and the inverter efficiency curve from a nearby plant with a similar rated inverter capacity. The AC power forecasts are validated against aggregated AC power measurements for six months. The ECMWF derived forecast outperforms the reference convex combination of climatology and persistence. The linear combination of ECMWF and NCMRWF derived AC forecasts showed the best result.

Application of AI for Short-Term PV Generation Forecast

“…In fact, the first ones depend on the solar radiation and the ambient temperature, whereas numerical weather forecast (NWP) [ 7 ] leans on environmental measurements. Indeed, in [ 8 ], the forecast precision is improved by including the effects of the weather characteristics, such as wind direction, strength and temperature. This reduces the dependence on a single factor.…”

A Solar and Wind Energy Evaluation Methodology Using Artificial Intelligence Technologies

“…The peculiarity of the proposed methodology is the generalization of the main used intellectual approaches that can be used at the stages of implementation of model building for the estimation and forecasting of solar or wind power generation, with the addition of the stage of building digital doubles that include the estimation and forecasting models necessary for controlling the energy system. There are a number of works that focus on the implementation of hybrid forecasting models [73][74][75][76][77], but they discuss specific approaches used at a particular model implementation stage without summarizing the main methods and algorithms that can be used at each specific implementation stage.…”