Development of a European system for identification of emerging mycotoxins in wheat supply chains

Abstract

This paper describes the results of a research project aimed at the conceptual development of an identification system for emerging mycotoxins in European feed and food supply chains of wheat. Basic requirements for such a system were addressed, including the selection of indicators, locating information sources, development of underlying model, and investigation of stakeholders' needs. The selection and ranking of key indicators for identifying emerging mycotoxins was based on a literature review, followed by a structured expert judgment study. The expert study was based on the Delphi technique and used a panel of 43 European experts. The Delphi procedure resulted in a selected set of 12 key indicators for each of three relevant stages of the wheat chain (cultivation; transport and storage; processing). For wheat cultivation, these were: relative humidity/rainfall, crop rotation, temperature, tillage practice, water activity in the kernels, crop variety, harvest conditions, changes in fungal populations, fungicide use, plant health, regional infection pressure and food safety awareness. For the majority of the selected indicators, information sources were identified in specific European countries. However, most sources are not readily accessible and particular data is lacking. A theoretical concept for a model underlying the envisioned emerging mycotoxin identification system has been developed. The model links the key indicators and their information sources to aid and promote identification of emerging mycotoxins. It manages different types of information sources and levels of available information. The needs of various stakeholder groups regarding the system were investigated by means of two empirical elicitation sessions. The results showed that all stakeholders considered that such a system would be beneficial. One major challenge expected in establishing the system is stakeholder commitment to sharing data and information. This requires great efforts in improving communication and interaction between the key stakeholders.

How will climate change affect mycotoxins in food?

“…A high priority over the next decade is the collation of accurate contamination and weather data, together with the development of models to forecast the effects of climate change on mycotoxins, with a view to providing the necessary foresight for strategic adaptation to climate change. These models will guide policy and practice to counter such emerging threats to delicately balanced natural and agricultural ecosystems (Evans, Baierl, Semenov, Gladders, & Fitt, 2008;Miraglia et al, 2009;van der Fels-Klerx et al, 2009).…”

“…Furthermore, the identification of climate change factors on diseases is central to risk management (van der Fels-Klerx et al, 2009). These factors include the molecular biology of the pathogen, the vectors, farming practice and land use, environmental factors and establishment of new microhabitats.…”

“…If temperature increases sufficiently then this is bound to occur in already hot regions -an unexpected benefit from climate change. Miraglia et al, 2009;van der Fels-Klerx et al, 2009). For example, impacts over the 21st century in the UK can be summarised as milder wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and more extreme weather incidents.…”

Approach for a pro-active emerging risk system on biofuel by-products in feed

“…The human factor (CF 11), a factor recognized as important previously (Van Asselt et al, 2010;van der Fels-Klerx et al, 2009), was not ranked high in the current biofuel cases. The experts in the workshop argued that quality of personnel had increased over the years with reduced risks as a consequence.…”

“…Since previous studies showed that human behavior was an important critical factor related to food safety of products (Van Asselt et al, 2010;van der Fels-Klerx et al, 2009), an extra factor 'Quality of personnel' (CF 11) was added. The thus established list of critical factors was verified for completeness with several experts using in-depth interviews.…”