Development of a land-use forecast tool for future water resources assessment: case study for the Mekong River 3S Sub-basins

Takamatsu, Masatsugu; Kawasaki, Akiyuki; Rogers, Peter; Malakie, Julia L.

doi:10.1007/s11625-013-0225-5

Cited by 23 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Statistical based methods are used to derive the mathematical relationship that links the probability of land-use change with a wide range of variables such as population growth, topography and transportation corridors. These relationships are normally obtained through linear regression, binomial logit and multinomial logit models, and the logistic regression model (Takamatsu et al, 2014). The CLUE model, for instance, uses multiple regression to simulate recent and future changes in land-use patterns.…”

Section: Statistical Based Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Methodological Integration in Land-Use Change Models

Dang

Kawasaki

2016

International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems

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Global change research communities are paying increasing attention to answering critical questions related to land-use change, questions which are at the root of many pressing socio-economic and environmental issues. In this regard, a huge number of models have been developed to support future land-use planning and environmental impact assessments of land-use change activities. Within land-use change models, methodological integration is recognized as an essential feature for a complete model, which can help to combine the strength of single modelling methods/techniques without inherent weaknesses. Despite the potential and remarkable growth of methodological integration in land-use change models, limited attention has been paid to this aspect of integration. In response to this, the authors' paper summarizes the current major land-use modelling methods/techniques, and explains the co-integration of these methods/techniques. In addition, they summarize the achievements, limitations and future trends in the use of the methodological integration approach in land-use change models.

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Section: Statistical Based Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Methodological Integration in Land-Use Change Models

Dang

Kawasaki

2016

International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems

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“…They found that the operation of the dams would increase the dry season flows by þ63% and decrease the wet season flows by −22% at the outlet. Takamatsu et al (2013) forecasted the potential future land cover development in 3S and its impacts on water resources up to the year 2033. Their findings suggest that water demand will increase, which may result in −10 to −15% decrease in dry season flows of the Sesan.…”

Section: Past Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-Based Assessment of Water, Food, and Energy Trade-Offs in a Cascade of Multipurpose Reservoirs: Case Study of the Sesan Tributary of the Mekong River

Räsänen

Joffre²,

Someth

et al. 2015

J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage.

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The Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia is undergoing rapid development in the exploitation of its water resources. Although hydropower is the most dominant driver for water development, the possibilities for multipurpose reservoirs have been increasingly discussed but not well studied. The authors assess the potential benefits and negative impacts of a multipurpose reservoir cascade facilitating hydropower and irrigation in the Sesan River, a transboundary tributary of the Mekong. A model-based assessment approach was developed where the hydropower operations of a cascade of reservoirs were simulated together with the irrigation water withdrawals. The assessment revealed that the reservoirs created considerable irrigation potential (28,348 ha), and the resulting losses for hydropower generation were relatively small (−1.6%). The river flow impacts were significant, but they originated mainly from the hydropower operations. The inclusion of irrigation led to an increased competition of water resources during the dry season. In addition, the assessed hydropower and irrigation development affected negatively protected areas, agriculturally valuable land, and forest cover. Gaps and shortcomings in the model-based assessments of water resources development were further recognized, including this one, concluding that particularly the connection to ecological and social domains remains often weak and needs, therefore, to be strengthened.

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“…The largest change in area as well as the largest variation in transition was from forest to agriculture, with area change ranging from 11,400 to 35,000 km 2 (Figure 5). Previous studies on projection of future land use in the 3S basin also suggest significant growth of agricultural areas by replacing forests and grasslands(Takamatsu et al, 2014;Ty, Sunada, Ichikawa, & Oishi, 2012).…”

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confidence: 95%

Land use change uncertainty impacts on streamflow and sediment projections in areas undergoing rapid development: A case study in the Mekong Basin

et al. 2017

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Quantitative understanding of potential changes in streamflow and sediment load is complicated by uncertainty related to land use change projections, which is characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of demand (quantity) and location of changes (spatial distribution). We simulate the Sesan, Srepok, and Sekong Rivers (3S), the most important tributaries of the lower Mekong River, with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the implications of conversion of forest to agricultural lands. Multiple land use transitions in the 3S basin are projected using the Land Change Modeler. The uncertainty in land use projection was addressed using an ensemble forecasting approach for 2060, combining (a) three land demand scenarios, (b) two transition potential modeling approaches (i.e., approach to create maps of the likelihood for areas to transition from one land use type to another), and (c) retaining or not protected areas. Land demand leads to the greatest uncertainty in land use change projections. Transition potential modeling approaches do not make much difference in the total change, but can result in spatial variations of change. Retaining protected areas can contribute significantly to uncertainty in land use change projections. Decrease in annual streamflow of the 3S basin varied from 3% to 21%, and changes in annual sediment outflux from the basin ranged from −8% to 249% for simulated scenarios. Land use demand uncertainty results in the highest streamflow and sediment load changes and can thus have major consequences for water and sediment management strategies in areas undergoing rapid development.

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Development of a land-use forecast tool for future water resources assessment: case study for the Mekong River 3S Sub-basins

Cited by 23 publications

References 14 publications

A Review of Methodological Integration in Land-Use Change Models

A Review of Methodological Integration in Land-Use Change Models

Model-Based Assessment of Water, Food, and Energy Trade-Offs in a Cascade of Multipurpose Reservoirs: Case Study of the Sesan Tributary of the Mekong River

Land use change uncertainty impacts on streamflow and sediment projections in areas undergoing rapid development: A case study in the Mekong Basin

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