Development of a List of High-Risk Operations for Patients 65 Years and Older

Abstract

Importance No consensus exists regarding the definition of “high risk” surgery in older adults. An inclusive and precise definition of high risk surgery may be useful for surgeons, patients, researchers and hospitals. Objectives To develop a list of “high risk” operations. Design 1) Retrospective cohort study; and 2) Modified Delphi procedure. Setting All Pennsylvania acute care hospitals (Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council [PHC4], 2001–2007) and a nationally-representative sample of U.S. acute care hospitals (Nationwide Inpatient Sample [NIS], HCUP, AHRQ 2001–2006). Patients Admissions 65 and older to PHC4 hospitals and admissions 18 and older to NIS hospitals. Methods We identified ICD-9 CM procedure codes associated with >1% inpatient mortality in PHC4. We used a modified Delphi technique with 5 board certified surgeons to further refine this list by excluding non-operative procedures and operations that were unlikely to be the proximate cause of mortality and were instead a marker of critical illness (e.g., tracheostomy). We then cross-validated this list of ICD-9CM codes in the NIS. Main Outcomes Measures 1) Delphi consensus of at least 4/5 panelists; 2) proportion agreement in the NIS. Results Among 4,739,522 admissions 65 and older in PHC4, 2,569,589 involved a procedure, encompassing 2,853 unique procedures. Of 1,130 procedures associated with a crude inpatient mortality of at least 1%, 264 achieved consensus as high risk operations by Delphi. The observed inpatient mortality in the NIS was ≥ 1% for 227/264 (86%) of the procedures in patients age 65 and older. The pooled inpatient mortality rate for these identified high risk procedures performed on patients age ≥65 was double the inpatient mortality for correspondingly identified high risk operations for patients less than 65 (6% vs. 3%). Conclusions We developed a list of procedure codes that can be used to identify “high risk” surgical procedures in claims data. This list of “high risk” operations can be used to standardize the definition of high risk surgery in quality and outcomes-based studies and design targeted clinical interventions.

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