Development of a Model for Predicting the 4-year Risk of Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis in China: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Wang, Limin; Han, Lu; Chen, Hongbo; Jin, Shida; Wang, Mengqi; Shang, Shaomei

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-86446/v2

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Of 12 models internally validating their model derived for knee OA outcomes, 5 included calibration APPLEYARD ET AL 8 assessment. Earlier models (27,31) appraised calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, and 4 studies presented and appraised calibration plots (27,29,30,38). Five of the 6 models for knee OA undergoing external validation assessed calibration using Hosmer-Lemeshow; only Fernandes et al (27) presented findings visually.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction Models to Estimate the Future Risk of Osteoarthritis in the General Population: A Systematic Review

Appleyard

Thomas

Antcliff

et al. 2023

Arthritis Care & Research

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Objective. To evaluate the performance and applicability of multivariable prediction models for osteoarthritis (OA). Methods. This was a systematic review and narrative synthesis using 3 databases (EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science) from inception to December 2021. We included general population longitudinal studies reporting derivation, comparison, or validation of multivariable models to predict individual risk of OA incidence, defined by recognized clinical or imaging criteria. We excluded studies reporting prevalent OA and joint arthroplasty outcome. Paired reviewers independently performed article selection, data extraction, and risk-of-bias assessment. Model performance, calibration, and retained predictors were summarized.Results. A total of 26 studies were included, reporting 31 final multivariable prediction models for incident knee (23), hip (4), hand (3) and any-site OA (1), with a median of 121.5 (range 27-12,803) outcome events, a median prediction horizon of 8 years (range 2-41), and a median of 6 predictors (range 3-24). Age, body mass index, previous injury, and occupational exposures were among the most commonly included predictors. Model discrimination after validation was generally acceptable to excellent (area under the curve = 0.70-0.85). Either internal or external validation processes were used in most models, although the risk of bias was often judged to be high with limited applicability to mass application in diverse populations.Conclusion. Despite growing interest in multivariable prediction models for incident OA, focus remains predominantly on the knee, with reliance on data from a small pool of appropriate cohort data sets, and concerns over general population applicability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction Models to Estimate the Future Risk of Osteoarthritis in the General Population: A Systematic Review

Appleyard

Thomas

Antcliff

et al. 2023

Arthritis Care & Research

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“…With the improvement of living standards, population aging and increased life expectancy, the number of patients with osteoarthritis of the knee is increasing year by year [11,12], and TKA, as an effective method of treating advanced osteoarthritis of the knee, can alleviate the pain of patients to a large extent and improve the quality of survival of patients. Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) is a patientcentered concept that advocates minimally invasive surgery, reduces surgical complications, and promotes rapid recovery of patients by optimizing the treatment process and the perioperative management plan, etc.…”

Section: Typical Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Early clinical outcomes and learning curve study of robot- assisted precision osteotomy in total knee arthroplasty in the context of ERAS

Wang,

Tang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Objective: To compare the early clinical outcomes of robot-assisted total knee arthroplasty (RA-TKA) with conventional manual total knee arthroplasty (CM-TKA) and analyze their learning curves. Methods: Patients who underwent initial unilateral total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis of the knee in Panzhihua Central Hospital from June to November 2023 were included. 130 patients were randomly divided into two groups: group A underwent total knee arthroplasty with HURWA Orthopaedic System (65 cases), and group B patients were performed using conventional tools (65 cases). Basic data, surgical information, imaging data and postoperative function were compared between the two groups. Surgical time was analyzed by cumulative sum analysis method (CUSUM), and the goodness of fit was judged by R². Results: Baseline data were consistent between the two groups, the FFC of the patients in group A was closer to 90° than group B, the LTC was concentrated at 87° and HKA was concentrated at 180°. There was no significant difference in inflammatory indicators and perioperative blood loss. Respectively, 7.80% (groups A) vs 9.52% (groups B) of the patients developed lower extremity intermuscular venous thrombosis, but there was no difference in knee function, pain and satisfaction.The operation time of group A was about 11.3 min longer than group B. The learning curve was best fitted as a cubic curve, and the fitted curve reached its apex when the number of surgical cases accumulated to the 22nd case. During the whole learning curve, no surgical termination or accidental injury caused by the failure of the robotic system occurred, and none of them suffered from serious complications such as infections, periprosthetic fracture, cardiac and cerebral vascular accidents, and so on. Conclusion: HURWA robot-assisted TKA with learning curve fixation in about 22 cases can obtain good lower limb force line reconstruction and precise implantation of prosthesis, which is a safe and effective surgical procedure for osteoarthritis of the knee.

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“…The protocol of CHARLS was approved by the Ethical Review Committee of Peking University, and its detail including the sampling approaches and blood sample taken has been described previously. [15][16][17][18] Written informed consent was obtained at the time of participation for all participants.…”

Section: Participantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in creatinine‐to‐cystatin C ratio over 4 years, risk of diabetes, and cardiometabolic control: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

Qiu

Cai

Yuan

et al. 2021

Journal of Diabetes

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Background: Creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio has attracted substantial interest as a measure to reflect health well-being, but no studies have assessed whether its longitudinal changes are associated with risk of diabetes. We aimed to examine their association, along with the exploration of the relationship of such changes with cardiometabolic control in middle-aged and older adults. Methods: We included a total of 3278 participants aged ≥45 years who provided measurements of creatinine and cystatin C at baseline and 4 years later from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Diabetes was diagnosed based on glucose, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), medical history, or use of antidiabetic mediations. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were obtained using logistic regression analyses.Results: After 4-year follow-up, 272 participants developed diabetes. Larger increases in creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio were associated with lower risk of diabetes. The multivariable-adjusted OR for diabetes per 1 SD increase in creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio was 0.84 (95% CI 0.72-0.98). Compared with participants showing decreases in creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio but increases in body mass index (BMI), those experiencing increases in creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio and decreases in BMI had the largest risk reduction (multivariableadjusted OR 0.52). Changes in creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio showed inverse correlation with blood pressure, HbA1c, lipids, and C-reactive protein at the 4-year follow-up. Moreover, they also correlated inversely with changes in HbA1c and C-reactive protein (all P ≤ 0.004). Conclusions: Increases in creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio led to reduced risk of diabetes and may benefit cardiometabolic control.

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Development of a Model for Predicting the 4-year Risk of Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis in China: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Cited by 5 publications

References 44 publications

Prediction Models to Estimate the Future Risk of Osteoarthritis in the General Population: A Systematic Review

Prediction Models to Estimate the Future Risk of Osteoarthritis in the General Population: A Systematic Review

Early clinical outcomes and learning curve study of robot- assisted precision osteotomy in total knee arthroplasty in the context of ERAS

Changes in creatinine‐to‐cystatin C ratio over 4 years, risk of diabetes, and cardiometabolic control: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

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