Development of a national index for the purpose of forest fire risk assessments on the example of southern Serbia

Ratknić, Tatjana; Ratknic, M.; Rakonjac, Nikola; Živanović, Ivana; Poduška, Zoran

doi:10.2298/tsci190412276r

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Studies [10,12] showed that the relationship between forest fires and fire indices existed in different regions of Serbia. In order to improve the wildfire risk assessment, the Angstrom index was modified, and a significant correlation with the forest fires is found in southern Serbia [25]. Beside the fire indices, the raw climate data can be used to estimate fire occurrence.…”

Section: Correlation With Forest Firesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of climatic conditions on fire risk in Djerdap National Park (Serbia): A case study of September 2011

Zivanovic¹,

Tosic

2020

THERM SCI

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The Djerdap National Park in Serbia is vulnerable to fires. The variability of a fire in the Djerdap National Park is studied depending on the impact of climatic conditions. The influence was investigated on a yearly, monthly, and daily basis using data recorded at the meteorological station Veliko Gradiste. Data were analyzed for two periods: 1961-1990 and 1991-2017, and for the year of 2011. Special attention is devoted to the conditions for the emergence of the largest forest fire in the Djerdap National Park in September 2011. In this study, the Angstrom index, the Nesterov index, and method of deficit and surplus of precipitation are used to predict the risk of fire. There was an increased danger of fire in the forests in the period of 1991-2017 compared to the period of 1961-1990. Indices showing fire risk are increased for the months of June, July, and August. The September 2011 is characterized by an increase of average monthly air temperature by 3.7?C and a reduction of the total monthly rainfall of 32.3 mm compared to a long-term average value which favorable influenced to the occurrence of large forest fires. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 176013]

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Section: Correlation With Forest Firesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of climatic conditions on fire risk in Djerdap National Park (Serbia): A case study of September 2011

Zivanovic¹,

Tosic

2020

THERM SCI

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“…As droughts have been observed to increase in frequency, intensity and duration in Serbia, more frequent wildfires are expected, especially in south-eastern and eastern Serbia. The Modified Angstrom and Nesterov indices can be used to assess the risk of fire, including Serbia (Ratknić et al, 2019;Živanović and Tošić, 2020). Wildfires affect sustainable forest management and incur a substantial loss to forestry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An analysis of the profitability of the restitution of sessile oak forests affected by wildfires in Serbia

Ratknić

Ratknic²,

Subić

et al. 2021

Not Bot Horti Agrobo

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Wildfires caused by climate change in Europe have numerous and long-lasting ecological, economic, and social implications for sustainable development (natural environment, economy, and society as a whole). Artificial revitalization of sessile oak forests destroyed by wildfires in Serbia is feasible, but it is quite expensive compared to the spontaneous regeneration. Cost-benefit analysis (an economic approach to comparing and estimating the benefits and shortcomings of a particular business plan, i.e., an investment project by analyzing its costs and benefits) is aimed at finding the best solutions and making the best decisions about the desirability of a project. It was concluded that the investment in the restitution of sessile oak forests could be profitable only if it was based on wood production. Wood production may bear slightly higher interest rates compared to previous estimates which ranged mainly around 3%. This primarily applies to better site classes, while poor quality sites require lower rates. At lower discount rates, it takes more time to reach the break-even point, while the period of time needed to reach the break-even point shortens with higher discount rates. The length of the production cycle plays an important role in determining the investment profitability, especially regarding the relationship between the length of the production cycle and production targets (the type and the quality of wood assortments produced). According to the results of the analysis of intangible benefits and costs, the costs outweigh the benefits, which makes the restitution of sessile oak forests destroyed by fires unacceptable.

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“…The FWI system is an important part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and was initially developed for conditions of boreal forests in Canada (Wotton, 2009). Later, the FWI system has been adapted to a number of countries with different climates to Canada, such as Indonesia and Malaysia (Groot et al, 2006), or countries of the Mediterranean region, i.e., Spain (Padilla and Vega-García, 2011), Portugal (Carvalho et al, 2008), France (Cloppet and Regimbeau, 2010), Serbia (Ratknić et al, 2019) and Greece (Dimitrakopoulos et al, 2011, Karali et al, 2014. Another fire danger rating system is the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), which is used in the United States (Deeming et al, 1977).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

Jurečka¹,

Možný²,

Bálek³

et al. 2019

Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun.

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The performance of fire indices based on weather variables was analyzed with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Three fire weather danger indices that are the basis of fire danger rating systems used in different parts of the world were assessed: the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Finnish Forest Fire Index (FFI). The performance of the three fire danger indices was investigated at different scales and compared with actual fire events. First, the fire danger indices were analyzed for different land use types during the period 1956–2015. In addition, in the analysis, the three fire danger indices were compared with wildfire events during the period 2001–2015. The fire danger indices were also analyzed for the specific locality of the Bzenec area where a large forest fire event occurred in May 2012. The study also focused on the relationship between fire danger indices and forest fires during 2018 across the area of the Jihomoravský region. Comparison of the index values with real fires showed that the index values corresponded well with the occurrence of forest fires. The analysis of the year 2018 showed that the highest index values were reached on days with the greater fire occurrence. On days with 5 or 7 reported fires per day, the fire danger indices reached values between 3 and 4.

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Development of a national index for the purpose of forest fire risk assessments on the example of southern Serbia

Cited by 5 publications

References 11 publications

Influence of climatic conditions on fire risk in Djerdap National Park (Serbia): A case study of September 2011

Influence of climatic conditions on fire risk in Djerdap National Park (Serbia): A case study of September 2011

An analysis of the profitability of the restitution of sessile oak forests affected by wildfires in Serbia

Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

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