Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong‐Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.07.006

Cited by 79 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Changes in flow regime characteristics were found to be equivocal with little statistical evidence for significant systematic shifts in flows for the periods 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100 compared with the present. This contrasts with the unequivocal findings of a shift in the flow regime for the same river found by Yang, Cui, Xu, Ciais, and Shi (). Admittedly, these results are for a different time domain and emissions scenarios compared with that used by Angelina et al (), which may well explain the contrasting findings.…”

Section: River Flow Regimescontrasting

confidence: 89%

Climate and rivers

McGregor

2019

River Research & Apps

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Over the last few decades as hydrologists have slowly raised their line of sight above the watershed boundary, it has become increasingly recognised that what happens in the atmosphere, as a major source of moisture for the terrestrial branch of the hydrological cycle, can strongly influence river dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Notwithstanding this, there is still a tendency for some in the river research community to restrict their gaze to the river channel or floodplain. However, Geoff Petts, the person to which this special issue is dedicated, understood well and widely encouraged a holistic view of river catchment processes. This included an acknowledgment of the role of climate, in its broadest sense, in shaping what happens within and without the river channel. The purpose of this paper therefore is to offer a broad overview of the role of some aspects of climate science in advancing knowledge in river research. Topics to be addressed include the role of climate in influencing river flow regimes, a consideration of the large‐scale climate mechanisms that drive hydrological variability within river basins at interannual to decadal timescales and atmospheric rivers and their link to surface hydrology. In reviewing these topics, a number of key knowledge gaps have emerged including attributing the causes of river flow regime changes to any one particular cause, the nonstationary and asymmetric forcing of river regimes by modes of climate variability and establishing links between atmospheric rivers, and terrestrial river channel processes, fluvial habitats, and ecological change.

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Section: River Flow Regimescontrasting

confidence: 89%

Climate and rivers

McGregor

2019

River Research & Apps

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“…The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 have problems simulating precipitation in this region. Recent studies have suggested that the new generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 archive exhibits several improvements in reproducing the climatology and interannual variability of the EASM compared with the CMIP3 GCMs, although the simulated biases remained and large inter-model spread existed (Chen and Bordoni, 2014;Gu et al, 2015b;Huang et al, 2013;Yang et al, 2017). For example, the mei-yu rainfall band is missing in GCMs, even though the monsoon circulation is reproduced well.…”

Section: H Gu Et Al: Ensemble Future Climate Projections and Uncertmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Yang

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated and used to project future regional climate change in China. The influences of model uncertainty and internal variability on projections are also identified. The RCMs simulate the historical climate and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China, including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwestern China, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results show that (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and that a multimodel ensemble (MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs are confirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature during the historical period. (2) For future (2030)(2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049) climate, the MME indicates consistent warming trends at around 1 • C in the entire domain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. The annual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region, except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change in annual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with the results from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a larger magnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals for projected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the driving GCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises from the internal variability over northern and southern China and the model uncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected mean precipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variability over most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the model uncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases with prediction lead time across all subregions.

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“…Water extraction for irrigation also causes flow regime alteration, especially in semi-arid and Mediterranean regions [3][4][5]. Additionally, variation in precipitation and rising air temperatures due to climate change contribute to changes in the flow regime [6][7][8]. River flow is a major driver of instream ecological health and changes in the flow regime can result in significant impacts on riverine ecological integrity and biodiversity [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Changes in the Flow Regime of the Yangtze River Using the Eco-Flow Metrics and IHA Metrics

Gao

Wang

2018

Water

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Changes in the flow regime of the Yangtze River were investigated using an efficient framework that combined the eco-flow metrics (ecosurplus and ecodeficit) and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) metrics. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate the natural flow regime and quantitatively separate the impacts of reservoir operation and climate variation on flow regime changes. The results showed that the flow regime changed significantly between the pre-dam and post-dam periods in the main channel and major tributaries. Autumn streamflow significantly decreased in the main channel and in the tributaries of the upper Yangtze River, as a result of a precipitation decrease and reservoir water storage. The release of water from reservoirs to support flood regulation resulted in a significant increase in winter streamflow in the main channel and in the Minjiang, Wujiang, and Hanjiang tributaries. Reservoir operation and climate variation caused a significant reduction in low flow pulse duration in the middle reach of the Yangtze River. Reservoir operation also led to an increase in the frequency of low flow pulses, an increase in the frequency of flow variation and a decrease in the rate of rising flow in most of the tributaries. An earlier annual minimum flow date was detected in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River due to reservoir operation. This study provides a methodology that can be implemented to assess flow regime changes caused by dam construction in other large catchments.

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Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

Cited by 79 publications

References 57 publications

Climate and rivers

Climate and rivers

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Analyzing Changes in the Flow Regime of the Yangtze River Using the Eco-Flow Metrics and IHA Metrics

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