Development of a new translational and rotational slides prediction model in Langhe hills (north-western Italy) and its application to the 2011 March landslide event

Abstract

This study outlines the relationship between antecedent precipitations and activation of the translational rock-block slides (TRBSs). This type of landslide has the peculiarity to involve wide sectors of the sedimentary bedrock, and it is emblematic in the Langhe area, in the southern hilly part of Piemonte in the Tertiary Piemonte Basin. The Langhe hills are particularly renowned for the cultivation of valuable vineyards, and therefore, constitute a place of important economic and tourist interest. Furthermore, the high density of structures and infrastructures in this area exposes a number of elements to the activity of these large landslides. In order to minimize human and economic losses, it is particularly important to establish a warning system capable of providing announcement of activation of TRBSs with sufficient advance. In this direction, the Environmental Protection Agency of Piemonte (ARPA Piemonte) developed a precipitation-threshold-based model. The model is set up on an extensive collection of historical data about the landslides movements (since 1917) and the related complete meteorological dataset. The regional weather gauge network and the forecasted precipitation amount, including snow melt's contribution, provide input data to the model. Output model can be tested by observations derived by the regional landslides monitoring network consisting of inclinometers and groundwater gauges managed by ARPA Piemonte.

Three‐dimensional displacements of a large volcano flank movement during the May 2010 eruptions at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

“…In these cases, the intrusions seem to temporally increase preexisting gravitational instabilities [Delaney et al, 1998;Lundgren et al, 2004;Clarke et al, 2013], even reactivating repeatedly (i.e., Kilauea Volcano) [Swanson et al, 1976;Delaney and Denlinger, 1999]. In nonvolcanic environments, large episodic movement surrounded by essentially static periods such as that seen at Pacaya can recur repeatedly [e.g., Petley et al, 2005;Massey et al, 2013;Tiranti et al, 2013;Ronchetti et al, 2010]. These reactivations tend to be correlated with specific triggers, often related to hydrologic variations such as rainfall or seasonal snowmelt.…”

Comparison of landslide forecasting services in Piedmont (Italy) and Norway, illustrated by events in late spring 2013

“…TRAPS analyzes 60 days of antecedent precipitation, including water from snowmelt (Tiranti et al, 2013).…”

“…Temperature and precipitation are also used as input variables in two hydrological models (Krøgli et al, 2017). The main model is a distributed version of the conceptual HBV model (Beldring et al, 2003) that divides the country into grid cells, each one modeled as a separate basin (Tiranti and Rabuffetti, 2010;Tiranti et al, 2013Tiranti et al, , 2014 statistical approach (Boje et al, 2014) Weather forecast COSMO I7 NWP model: for the first 3 days with 6 h resolution; weather radar QPE and storm-tracking nowcasting AROME MetCoOp model for the first 3 days as 1 km 2 raster maps, with 24 and 3 h resolution; EC model for the following 3 days as raster maps 1 km 2 resolution + daily briefing with meteorologist on duty + visual inspection of radar during summer Monitoring instruments multi-sensor weather gauges (< 400); two weather radars multi-sensor weather gauges (∼ 400); groundwater level (80); water discharge (∼ 350); other instruments (snow water equivalent; soil water content and soil temperature) Released warning every day, before 13:00 every day, before 11:00 and updated before 15:00 Warning valid from 13:00 to 24:00 from 07:00 the day of publication to 07:00 of the following day (white = low/null probability; yellow = medium probability; red = high probability); (d) an example of SMART threshold (red dashed line) representation related to accumulated rainfall (blue area) recorded by rain gauges; (e) an example of TRAPS diagram: blue dots are the antecedent precipitation values accumulated over previous 60 days, red lines are the monthly triggering threshold value and purple lines are the monthly predisposing thresholds (thresholds indicating the high probability of early instability; source: ARPA Piemonte).…”

Regional landslide forecasting in Piemonte (Italy) and in Norway: experiences from 2013 late spring

“…TRAPS analyses the 60-days antecedent precipitation measurement including water deriving from snow melting (Tiranti et al, 2013). 5 ARPA Piemonte daily evaluates EWSs response to issue a regional warning to Civil Protection municipalities and citizens on slope processes occurrence.…”