Development of a Probabilistic Framework for Debris Transport and Hazard Assessment in Tsunami-Like Flow Conditions

Abstract

Past hydraulic and structural design has predominantly used deterministic methods, often neglecting the stochastic nature that underlies transient loading processes. Nowadays, probabilistic design methods have gained wider attention. The accurate estimates of design conditions for structures need to consider the probabilistic properties of the loads. One of the more challenging loads in extreme flooding events is related to debris transport and loading during hydrodynamic hazardous events. While crucial to assess damage on infrastructure as part of the design cycle, field surveys and numerical modeling provide little guidance as to how the motion of debris within these natural disasters can be adequately captured. The study presented herein examines an idealized case regarding the transport of debris entrained during extreme flooding events by evaluating the characteristics of shipping containers motion entrained in a dam-break flow over a flat, horizontal bed. In aiding the promotion of probabilistic methods, this study proposes characteristics of the stochastic properties of debris transport, focussing on the lateral displacement and velocity of debris based on the experimental results. The magnitude of the lateral displacement was shown to strongly correlate with the local hydrodynamic conditions and the initial configuration of the debris. The results of the physical model were then incorporated into a probabilistic framework. The aim for developing this framework is to facilitate debris hazard assessment in extreme flooding event studies.

Wave–Current Impulsive Debris Loading on a Coastal Building Array

“…8(a and b)] shows that the buildings in the central portion of the first row are most likely to be impacted by the debris. Similar debris spreading distributions have been identified both in the laboratory (Nistor et al 2017b;Park et al 2021;Goseberg et al 2016;Stolle et al 2020b) and in the field (Naito et al 2014), but these distributions are defined for debris spreading and not necessarily for collisions. However, debris dispersion is not a major focus of this paper: a complete analysis for this wave-current flow will be given by Cinar et al (G. E. Cinar, A.…”

“…Spreading angles obtained from the experiments of Park et al (2021) and Goseberg et al (2016) are also within this 22.5 • cone. The debris spreading probability has also been represented as a Gaussian function, with the alongshore distance as the independent variable and with a variance that depends on the cross-shore direction (Matsutomi 2009;Stolle et al 2020b). It is important to emphasize that, in all the studies mentioned, except for that of Naito et al (2014), debris transport has been studied primarily on a flat surface or with a constant slope.…”

Dam-Break Waves’ Hydrodynamics on Composite Bathymetry

“…Following Chanson (2006) and Madsen et al (2008), dambreak waves are frequently used by a multitude of authors in the context of tsunami engineering: Derschum et al (2018), Khan et al (2000), , Stolle et al (2019), Stolle et al (2020b), Stolle et al (2020a), andvon Häfen et al (2021) used dam-break waves to study debris transport and debris-induced loadings, and Nistor et al (2017a), Nistor et al (2017b), Stolle et al (2016), andWüthrich et al (2020) used the vertical release method to investigate debris motion as well. Al-Faesly et al (2012), Arnason et al (2009), Aureli et al (2015), Cross (1967), Farahmandpour et al (2020), Moon et al (2019), Ramsden (1996), Shafiei et al (2016), Soares-Frazão andZech (2007), Soares-Frazão and Zech (2008), Winter Andrew et al (2021), and Xu et al (2020 used dam-break waves to investigate loads on structures like residential houses, breakwaters or idealized cities, and the associated flow regime.…”

Influence of Tsunami-Driven Shipping Containers’ Layout on Their Motion

“…It is also an essential scientific basis for tsunami relief, recovery, and reconstruction decision-making. Stolle et al [3] used a probabilistic design approach to analyze shipping container motion in extreme tsunami events and presented a characterization of the stochastic properties of debris transportation. This research aimed to exploit a stochastic framework for debris hazard assessment and to apply the framework to a tsunami-like scenario.…”