Development of a qualitative reasoning model for financial forecasting

Kesh, Someswar; Raja, Mahalakshmi

doi:10.1108/09685220510582638

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Qualitative methods mainly rely on expert judgment (De Langen et al 2012). These methods apply different techniques including rating scale, analog, Delphi, leading indicator, diffusion, performance evaluation review technique, survey, interviews, direct observation, and written documents (Jain 2005;Kesh and Raja 2005;Patton 2001). Qualitative models are used when data are unavailable, scarce, and ambiguous.…”

Section: Different Port Throughput Forecasting Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

et al. 2021

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Capacity plays a crucial role in a port's competitive position and the growth of its market share. An investment decision to provide new port capacity should be supported by a growing demand for port services. However, port demand is volatile and uncertain in an increasingly competitive market environment. Also, forecasting models themselves are associated with epistemic uncertainty due to model and parameter uncertainties. This paper applies a Bayesian statistical method to forecast the annual throughput of the multipurpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland. Model uncertainties are thus taken into account, while parameter uncertainties are handled by selecting influencing macroeconomic variables based on mutual information analysis. The presented model has an adaptive capability as new information becomes available. Our method results in a range of port throughput forecasts, in addition to a point estimate, and it also accounts for epistemic uncertainty, thus increasing the reliability of forecasts. Our results provide support for informed decision-making in capacity planning and management. Our forecasts show a constant linear growth of containerized throughput the period 2020-2025. Noncontainerized throughput declines rapidly over the same period.

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Section: Different Port Throughput Forecasting Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

et al. 2021

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“…Qualitative methods mainly rely on expert judgment (De Langen, Van Meijeren, and Tavasszy 2012). These methods apply different techniques including rating scale, analog, Delphi, leading indicator, diffusion, performance evaluation review technique, survey, interviews, direct observation, and written documents (Jain 2005;Kesh and Raja 2005;Patton 2001). Qualitative models are used when data are unavailable, scarce, and ambiguous.…”

Section: Different Port Throughput Forecasting Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

Eskafi

Dastgheib

Taneja

et al. 2021

J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng.

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Ports have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. In this unstable world, ports as dynamic systems are developed under a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, black-swan events, for instance, the financial crisis in 2008, the avalanche in Flateyri (Iceland) in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 make successful port planning a challenging task. Indeed, the ever-increasing complexity of a port system and its long technical lifetime make uncertainty considerations inevitable in the planning process. Therefore, this research presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties, including opportunities and vulnerabilities, in the port planning process. To this end, a structured stakeholder analysis is performed to effectively and timely engage stakeholders in the planning process. Fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface is used to identify the salient stakeholders. Subsequently, the success of the future port is defined in terms of the specific objectives of the stakeholders. To develop this definition, a problem structuring method and fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method are synthesized. Then, a port throughput forecast is conducted that accounts for epistemic uncertainty, including model and parameters uncertainties, and thus increases the reliability of forecast results. The method identifies the influencing macroeconomic variables on port throughput by mutual information and then applies the Bayesian statistical method to forecast the port throughput. Effective actions are planned to seize opportunities and manage vulnerabilities that manifest in the projected lifetime. Therefore, the port can adapt or better withstand the vagaries of the future. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty and facilitates adaptive port planning. The framework is applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results indicate that the uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-time horizon, while in the middle-time horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities.

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“…The qualitative approach to financial forecasting has limits (Kesh and Raja, 2005), but can be adopted for specific applications. The approach requires a high level of clarity of terms and establishing a relationship amongst the elements.…”

Section: Innovation Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Business Planning Framework for WiMAX Applications

Coster

2009

Handbook of Research on Telecommunications Planning and Management for Business

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Mobile networking refers to wireless technologies which provide communications between devices. Applications for mobile networking have a broad scope as they can be applied to many situations in either industrial or commercial sectors. The challenge for firms is to better match market-induced variability to the organizational issues and systems necessary for technological innovation. This chapter develops a business planning framework for mobile networking applications. This framework recognises the fluidity of the situation when trying to anticipate and model emerging wireless applications. The business planning framework outlined in this chapter is a generic model which can be used by companies to assess the business case for applications utilizing mobile networking technologies.

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Development of a qualitative reasoning model for financial forecasting

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

A Business Planning Framework for WiMAX Applications

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