Development of an approach to evaluate the failure probabilities of river levees based on expert judgement: Application to a case study

Hathout, Michel; Peyras, Laurent; Carvajal, Claudio; Diab, Youssef

doi:10.1111/jfr3.12603

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This method also can be used to estimate the probability and decided the policy to be taken. Expert judgment is the key in analyzing if the expert knowledge and experience are appropriate to the validated topic or problem [54]- [56].…”

Section: F Expert Judgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The System Feature Identification for Accelerating Government Human Capital Knowledge Improvement

Sensuse¹,

Cahyaningsih²,

Wibowo³

et al. 2022

Int. J. Adv. Sci. Eng. Inf. Technol.

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The knowledge management system is information technology to support knowledge management activities in an organization. Defining KMS features in government institutions can be conducted by identifying the KM process is represented by some indicators. Many studies have been done in developing the KM system in various sectors. However, research on the KM system in human capital management has not yet been much published. This research aims to define a priority order of knowledge management process and identify knowledge management system features for Government Human Capital Management. Data collection has been done by distributing questionnaires (253 respondents) and interviewing stakeholders (9 experts) of the institution for human capital management in Indonesia (KemenPAN&RB, BKN, and LAN. We used three analysis methods: the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Pearson Correlation (Pearson's R), and the Expert Judgment method. As a result, we found major features of KM system for HCM in Indonesia, including electronic group discussion (best practice and lesson learn), work performance evaluation (daily activities and profile), communication tools (e-mail, chat and video conference), document management (digital document and physical document) and expertise management (decision support, expertise locator and expert knowledge). The limitation of this study is the topic of research specific to the KM system for government human capital management in Indonesia. The object research only three government ministries appointed to be government human capital management managers. Recommendation KM system in the government institution must be implemented to facilitate KM process align with the organizational strategy and objectives.

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Section: F Expert Judgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The System Feature Identification for Accelerating Government Human Capital Knowledge Improvement

Sensuse¹,

Cahyaningsih²,

Wibowo³

et al. 2022

Int. J. Adv. Sci. Eng. Inf. Technol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…These approaches either concern wave‐induced overtopping (i.e., not overflowing) or require extensive historical data. An alternative approach, when such detailed data are unavailable, is to use expert judgment to estimate failure by overflowing, as done by Hathout et al (2020) and Rongen et al (2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study

Mainguenaud

Peyras

Khan

et al. 2023

J Flood Risk Management

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Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method of levee failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. We tested two approaches to aggregate those fragility curves into a global fragility curve respectively using: an enveloping curve and Monte‐Carlo simulations. We implemented this approach to earthen levee reliability for several flood return periods to the Bow River in Calgary, Canada. We used limit equilibrium method to estimate the safety factor of the levee segment and Monte‐Carlo simulations to estimate sliding probabilities. We used Terzaghi's critical hydraulic gradient to estimate backward erosion failure probabilities. The estimation of overflowing probabilities required expert judgment. We discussed how the choice of the hydraulic gradient area and the consideration of a steady state or transient model impact backward erosion failure probabilities. The results showed for our study case that, even though the transient model is a closer representation of reality, the levee saturation parameter has little impact on hydraulic gradient values, by extension, on sliding and backward erosion failure probabilities. The Monte‐Carlo aggregated fragility curve is more realistic than the envelop curve of the failure mechanisms for an equivalent computation time.

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“…However the theoretical developments are not developed in this paper. The complete method, their methodological basis and the complete results are given in (Hathout et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method to assess the failure probabilities of river levees based on Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD)

Peyras¹,

Carvajal²,

Diab³

et al. 2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

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Studies carried out to analyse the risks of levees must include an evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different failure mechanisms (overflow, internal erosion, sliding and scouring). The probabilistic quantitative evaluation of these mechanisms remains difficult due to often insufficient input data, the natural variability of the materials, structures of very long length, the availability of mechanical models for certain failure mechanisms, and the random nature of the stresses involved. This makes it necessary to call for expert judgement to evaluate the probabilities of failure. However, expert judgement is generally associated with a qualitative and subjective dimension, and it comprises biases liable to impair the capacities of an expert to elicit their evaluations. This article proposes an approach to processing expert judgement that includes the modalities of Individual expert Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD). This IeCAD approach has been developed for river levees in view to correcting biased expert evaluations in the case of evaluating the failure probability of structures.

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Development of an approach to evaluate the failure probabilities of river levees based on expert judgement: Application to a case study

Cited by 6 publications

References 25 publications

The System Feature Identification for Accelerating Government Human Capital Knowledge Improvement

The System Feature Identification for Accelerating Government Human Capital Knowledge Improvement

A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study

A method to assess the failure probabilities of river levees based on Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD)

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