Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction
using seasonal climate forecast

Cho, Jaepil; Shin, Changmin; Choi, Hwan-Kyu; Kim, Kyong-Hyeon; Choi, Jae Young

doi:10.5194/piahs-374-175-2016

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…MBC also leads to spatial downscaling of the original model forecasts from GCMs (2.5 • × 2.5 • ) into the high resolution of the ERA5-Land (0.1 • × 0.1 • ), which enabled more location-specific application of SCFs in our study. Using the bias-corrected forecasts' monthly means of temperature and precipitation variables, we subsequently selected a best-fit historical observation data, in this case from the ERA5-Land reanalysis data for 30 years of 1981-2010, based on the Mahalanobis Distance (MD) (Cho et al, 2016). Similar analog sampling from historical observation data has been frequently used for the downscaling of GCM data for subsequent applications (Hirschi et al, 2012;Wu et al, 2012).…”

Section: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh

Kim

Choi

2020

Front. Plant Sci.

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Seasonal disease risk prediction using disease epidemiological models and seasonal forecasts has been actively sought over the last decades, as it has been believed to be a key component in the disease early warning system for the pre-season planning of local or national level disease control. We conducted a retrospective study using the wheat blast outbreaks in Bangladesh, which occurred for the first time in Asia in 2016, to study a what-if scenario that if there was seasonal disease risk prediction at that time, the epidemics could be prevented or reduced through prediction-based interventions. Two factors govern the answer: the seasonal disease risk prediction is accurate enough to use, and there are effective and realistic control measures to be used upon the prediction. In this study, we focused on the former. To simulate the wheat blast risk and wheat yield in the target region, a high-resolution climate reanalysis product and spatiotemporally downscaled seasonal climate forecasts from eight global climate models were used as inputs for both models. The calibrated wheat blast model successfully simulated the spatial pattern of disease epidemics during the 2014–2018 seasons and was subsequently used to generate seasonal wheat blast risk prediction before each winter season starts. The predictability of the resulting predictions was evaluated against observation-based model simulations. The potential value of utilizing the seasonal wheat blast risk prediction was examined by comparing actual yields resulting from the risk-averse (proactive) and risk-disregarding (conservative) decisions. Overall, our results from this retrospective study showed the feasibility of seasonal forecast-based early warning system for the pre-season strategic interventions of forecasted wheat blast in Bangladesh.

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Section: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh

Kim

Choi

2020

Front. Plant Sci.

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“…Improvements in impact models themselves may also be required as, in some cases, errors derived from impact models may be the dominant source of uncertainty (e.g. Cho et al, 2016). However, probably the greatest potential here is through improved/increased data collection.…”

Section: Future Priorities For More Skilful Seasonal Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, seasonal forecasts of water quality and ecology are rare, despite their potential relevance for management. The few examples we could find included river nutrient loads in a Korean catchment (Cho et al, 2016) and turbidity exceedance in a drinking water source in the Pacific Northwest (Towler et al, 2010), and while both studies focused primarily on method development, Towler et al (2010) showed that their workflow, which incorporated seasonal climate forecasts, resulted in an improvement in skill over climatology.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics

Jackson-Blake

Clayer

Eyto

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Advance warning of seasonal conditions has the potential to assist water management in planning and risk mitigation, with large potential social, economic, and ecological benefits. In this study, we explore the value of seasonal forecasting for decision-making at five case study sites located in extratropical regions. The forecasting tools used integrate seasonal climate model forecasts with freshwater impact models of catchment hydrology, lake conditions (temperature, water level, chemistry, and ecology), and fish migration timing and were co-developed together with water managers. To explore the decision-making value of forecasts, we carried out a qualitative assessment of (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season and (2) the relevance of any windows of opportunity (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, water managers were optimistic about the potential for improved decision-making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management. Reductions in forecast uncertainty and a need to develop practical, hands-on experience were identified as key requirements before forecasts would be used in operational decision-making. Seasonal climate forecasts provided little added value to freshwater forecasts in these extratropical study sites, and we discuss the conditions under which seasonal climate forecasts with only limited skill are most likely to be worth incorporating into freshwater forecasting workflows.

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“…The few examples we could find included river nutrient loads in a Korean catchment (Cho et al, 2016) and turbidity exceedance in a drinking water source in the Pacific Northwest (Towler et al, 2010), both of which showed promising results. For standing waters, the use of short-term weather forecasts, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics

Jackson-Blake

Clayer

Eyto

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Advance warning of seasonal conditions has potential to assist water management in planning and risk mitigation, with large potential social, economic and ecological benefits. In this study, we explore the value of seasonal forecasting for decision making at five case study sites located in extratropical regions. The forecasting tools used integrate seasonal climate model forecasts with freshwater impact models of catchment hydrology, lake conditions (temperature, level, chemistry and ecology) and fish migration timing, and were co-developed together with stakeholders. To explore the decision making value of forecasts, we carried out a qualitative assessment of: (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season, and (2) the relevance of any “windows of opportunity” (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, stakeholders were optimistic about the potential for improved decision making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management. Reductions in forecast uncertainty and a need to develop practical hands-on experience were identified as key requirements before forecasts would be used in operational decision making. Seasonal climate forecasts provided little added value to freshwater forecasts in the study sites, and we discuss the conditions under which seasonal climate forecasts with only limited skill are most likely to be worth incorporating into freshwater forecasting workflows.

show abstract

Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh

Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh

Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics

Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics

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