Development of black ice prediction model using GIS-based multi-sensor model validation

Abstract

Abstract. Fog, freezing rain and snow (melt) quickly condense on road surfaces, forming black ice that is difficult to identify and causes major accidents on highways. As a countermeasure to prevent icing car accidents, it is necessary to predict the amount and location of black ice. This study advanced previous models through machine learning and multi-sensor verified results. Using spatial (hill shade, slope, river system, bridge, and road (highway) and meteorological (air temperature, cloudiness, vapour pressure, wind speed, precipitation, snow cover, specific heat, latent heat, and solar radiation energy) data from the study area (Suncheon-Wanju Highway in Gurye-gun, Jeollanam-do, South Korea), the amount and location of black ice were modelled based on system dynamics to predict black ice and then simulated with Geo-Information System in units of 1 m2. The intermediate factors calculated as input factors were road temperature and road moisture, modelled using a deep neural network (DNN) and numerical methods. Considering the results of the DNN, the root mean square error was improved by 148.6 % and reliability by 11.43 % compared to a previous study (Linear Regression). Based on the model results, multiple sensors were buried at four selected points in the study area. The model was compared with sensor data and verified with the upper-tailed test (with a significance level of 0.05) and Fast Fourier Transform (freezing does not occur when wavelength = 0.00001 Hz). Results of the verified simulation can provide valuable data for government agencies like road traffic authorities to prevent traffic accidents caused by black ice.